Black November – the run-up to Black Friday – isn’t generally going so well for digital retailers. Overall sales have dipped markedly in the first two weeks of the month, according to IMRG’s Online Retail Index.

However health & beauty has been living up to expectations, especially in the fragrance category, and there’s still hope for a late rally in the wider market, it noted.

But the overall Index, which tracks the online sales performance of hundreds of retailers, reported a 5.9% year-on-year decline in the week commencing 28 October, the sharpest drop since June this year, it said. The week commencing 3 November also saw a 3.9% year-on-year dip “causing many retailers some anxiety over peak trading prospects”, the report noted.

It said the late timing of Black Friday this year is one of the key factors impacting performance. Falling on 29 November (due to Thanksgiving being on the fourth Thursday of November), Black Friday’s five days later than in 2023. 

“This makes direct year-on-year comparisons tricky and signals that much of the anticipated shopping activity is still to come”, IMRG said.

As of the week commencing 17 November, just under half of the retailers being tracking were yet to launch their campaigns (fewer than the same time last year).
 
“The later weeks of this month may bring hope for Black Friday as, by the 29th, the entire UK workforce should have received their November pay, positioning this as a primary shopping day. This shift could drive stronger performance on the Friday itself and result in declines on Cyber Monday, which is in December this year”.
 
A boost may also come from ‘Fake Friday’ (22 November), as many customers could mistakenly think it’s Black Friday as the actual day is late in the month, with many campaigns expected to be live by that date, the report suggests.
 
IMRG said that although there has been “heightened performance-related anxieties among the total market”, there are a few online product categories that have experienced growth. As mentioned, in particular Health & Beauty “has been the star performer”. Its subcategory, Fragrance, has seen “significant” revenue increase in the week commencing 3 November, at +66.9% year-on-year, and Haircare also saw “exceptional performance”, at +66.1% year-on-year.
 
Andy Mulcahy, Strategy and Insight director at IMRG, said: “The Black Friday period goes on for so long and is such a big part of the year for retailers that it brings highs and lows that can make it difficult to understand if it is going well while it is still active. 

“The date move means the weekly sales like-for-likes will look a bit odd at first, but by the time we get into December it should be starting to look a lot clearer. A slow start and a test of nerve for retailers for sure, but we may see a lopsided month here where the second half is much improved. It could be a good peak for retailers yet.”