As of Monday, forecast computer models still differ regarding just how potent this system may become as it arrives into New Year’s Day, and exactly how it develops.

As a result, the exact scope of the strongest winds are yet to be predicted with high confidence.

But there is potential for a period of disruptive winds in our region developing particularly by Wednesday morning, with forecast gusts about 40 to 60mph expected inland, and 60 to 75mph possible around some coasts of the Bristol Channel and adjacent uplands.

I expect the strongest gusts in the West Country from this system to be focused into parts of North Devon and West Somerset, along the A39 corridor. But it will become noticeably windy everywhere, overnight from New Year’s Eve and through the first half of New Year’s Day.

A period of heavy, squally rain is also expected to move south-east on a cold front during the first day of the year. This will combine with the strong winds to give a period of difficult conditions on the roads. Some disruption is also likely for transport by air and perhaps rail, with localised flooding possible.

As the deep area of low pressure departs east by Thursday, colder air will then spread south in its wake. The drop in temperature will become very noticeable, both by day and night, for Thursday, Friday and quite probably Saturday too.