While the UK’s weather does seem to have improved from the soggy conditions of recent moths, it’s still far from offering a sustained, summer-like environment and is continuing to dampen retail sales.

That’s according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey, which said this week that retail sales volumes fell at an accelerated rate in the year to July. 

It was the second consecutive month in which annual sales declined, with retailers citing “unfavourable weather conditions and market uncertainty as key contributing factors”.

And retailers are expecting the sales downturn to continue in August, but at a slower pace.

Before looking at the actual figures, we need to explain the CBI survey. It doesn’t offer actual sales numbers. Instead it talks to retailers and gives us a weighted balance of those saying retail sales fell or rose to some degree or another.

So, for July, the weighted balance of those saying retail sales fell — and fell at a faster pace — was 43%, compared to 24% in June. Clothing retailers were particularly gloomy too.
 
And for the future, the balance was 32% expecting an August sales drop with 21% expecting sales to remain below seasonal norms in August.

Stock positions were also at their most elevated since June 2023 this month (32% saying that from 3% in June). And retailers expect stocks to remain “too high” in relation to expected sales next month (21%).

Martin Sartorius, the CBI’s principal economist, said: “July marked a disappointing month for the distribution sector, with retailers feeling the sting from a harsh mix of unfavourable weather conditions and ongoing market uncertainty.

“While the downturn in sales volumes is set to continue next month, some firms expressed hope for an improvement in market conditions post-general election. The sector will now look for the new government to deliver on its bold reform agenda outlined in the King’s Speech to supercharge growth to effectively aid households’ finances and offer market stability.”