It can be a topsy-turvy world when it comes to predicting/reporting UK consumer confidence. Despite early November’s post-Budget bounce, there has been little shift in confidence “with many worried about the economy in the lead up to Christmas”, according to the British Retail Consortium.

Based on its BRC-Opinium data, consumer expectations over the next three months show the Personal financial situation improved slightly to -3 in November, up from -4 in October; the State of the Economy reading worsened slightly to -19 from -17 last month; Personal Spending on retail rose slightly to +3 from +2 month-on-month; Personal Spending overall was flat +17 in November; while Personal Saving was also static at -9.

That contrasts with last week’s GfK monthly report that gave a more upbeat message, noting confidence was up and, importantly, its Major Purchase Index reading was up a meaty five points “an important measure that has jumped in the run-up to Black Friday”.

But  while BRC’s chief executive Helen Dickinson noted that “personal retail spending remained positive… non-food spending expectations remained low”.
 
She added: “The last month clearly did little to shift the dial for households either positively or negatively. However, the same cannot be said for the retail industry.

“With over £7 billion in additional costs in 2025 resulting from the Budget, retailers will have little choice but to raise prices or reduce investment in jobs and shops. To mitigate this, government must ensure that changes to the business rates system, planned for 2026, bring about a meaningful reduction in bills for all retailers.”

Meanwhile, the previous GfK report did add that “while 2025 is just around the corner and the New Year often brings optimism, it’s too early to expect significant further improvements in the consumer mood.

“As recent data shows, inflation has yet to be tamed, people are still feeling acute cost of living pressures, and it will take time for the UK’s new government to deliver on its promise of ‘change’.”