Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.

Andrew bids to end the week on a high with three stats-based selections at Uttoxeter on Sunday, October 6th…

UTTOXETER 1.15

NORN IRON (system – Harry Derham, stable switchers)

Harry Derham has a fine record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with 19 of the 47 qualifiers (40.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £59.64 to a £1 level stake at SP. NORN IRON, absent for 530 days since his Ffos Las third for Oliver Sherwood on his hurdles debut, looks a likely improver and is worth a punt.

UTTOXETER 2.25

BREDON HILL (system – Nigel Twiston-Davies, October)

Nigel Twiston-Davies usually gets off to a flyer in the peak jumps season and, since 2004, backing his runners in the month of October would have found 264 winners from 1280 bets (20.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £114.70 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 218.26, A/E = 1.21). Last year,h is strike-rate was 29.6% (16 winners from 54 bets, +£14.23) and so far this year it’s 55.6% (five from nine, +£4.49). He has five runners here and at Kelso today including BREDON HILL, who showed promise in two bumpers in the spring. All three of his half siblings won early in their careers and he can take a step forward.

UTTOXETER 4.10

JEUDIDEE (system – Kim Bailey handicap chasers, first run after a wind operation)

Kim Bailey has a 12 from 39 record (30.8% strike-rate) with his handicap chasers on their first run back after a win operation and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £20.71 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 6.48, A/E = 1.85). JEUDIDEE looked unlucky not to score on his chase debut at Stratford in June, going easily when falling three out and also had excuses for his subsequent Worcester sixth. He’ll need to improve his jumping but the five-year-old has time on his side and the wind surgery could make the difference.

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Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:

• New customers aged 18 or over opt in and stake £10+ on any sporting event.
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• Once the qualifying bet settles 3x £10 free bets will be awarded to your account.
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