Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount writes for the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, both published by the Racing Post, as well as GG.co.uk. His stats and systems based approach to value bets is a proven formula over time. Andrew provides SportsCasting readers with his latest thoughts below.
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Andrew heads to Redcar and Kempton’s evening all-weather action for his two recommended bets/trades on Wednesday, September 25th…
LUNAR ORBIT out-ran his 33-1 Starting Price when fourth on soft ground at Leicester on his recent debut, doing well to finish just over four lengths behind the winner after running green and failing to settle from his disadvantageous high draw in a 7f novice contest. Warren Greatrex has a solid record with his Flat runners on their second career starts – form figures of 841215252361 (3-12) for a profit of £25.88 to a £1 level stake at SP and the son of Sea The Moon has the ideal draw in stall 1. Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price (11-4 at the time of writing).
Recommendation: Back LUNAR ORBIT in Redcar 2.45
EIGHT MILE, patiently ridden from stall 1 at Lingfield last time, found trouble and had to be switched very wide before staying on late in the straight. The 3-1 favourite allowed main marker rival Global Warning to get first run and get could never quite get to him, going down by three-quarters of a length in second place. George Scott’s gelding has run well on both previous starts at Kempton and, while he’ll need luck in running from another inside draw in this 7f handicap, there should be plenty of pace on thanks to BATED BREEZE and the blinkered first-time TAKEOVER TARGET, so the race could be set up nicely for him. Buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market.
Recommendation: Back EIGHT MILE in Kempton 4.27
COUNT PALATINE was put in as the 5-1 favourite by the Racing Post for this 7f handicap on the strengths of his recent Thirsk win, but he looked flattered by taking the wide route from a favourable high draw that day (first four drawn 9, 10 and 8 of 10). Michael Dods’ three-year-old was scoring for the first time at the 13th attempt and, while down in class today, he’s got a tricky high draw to overcome and ran poorly over a straight 7f on his penultimate start. Sell in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market. Fixed odds punters might want to side with Kevin Ryan’s BORDERLINE BOSS (12-1), who has had a wind operation since his disappointing 11-2 ninth of 14 over course and distance in July. His trainer is ten from 34 with three-year-olds in Class 5 or lower company on their first start back following wind surgery (+£40.63 to a £1 level stake at SP).
Recommendation: Oppose COUNT PALATINE in Redcar 5.40
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