Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount writes for the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, both published by the Racing Post, as well as GG.co.uk. His stats and systems based approach to value bets is a proven formula over time. Andrew provides SportsCasting readers with his latest thoughts below.
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Andrew successfully opposed TABLETALK (last of five, 3-1) on Friday and has three recommended bets/trades on Saturday, October 5th…
CLIFFORD LEE has a good book of mounts at Ascot today and he rates a buy with Spreadex in the ASCOT JOCKEYS market. Buyers can get off to a flyer with BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND in the Listed Rous Stakes (1.50), thanks to her record below Group 3 level of 111 (3-3). Clifford might be able to double up with AL QAREEM in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes (2.25), winner of this race 12 months ago. The five-year-old loves the mud, peaks in the autumn and a good run here could see him enter each-way calculations for the Group 1 Long Distance Cup on Champions Day later this month. KORKER, Lee’s mount in the Group 3 Bengough Stakes, often blows the start but is incredibly consistent and often recovers to finish in the frame, especially in small fields. His record in fields of nine or fewer runners reads 2111522121343 (5-13). UNITED APPROACH (3.35) is likely to be a double-figure price but finished second by a head over course and distance last time and has his preferred soft ground, while MYSTIC PEARL has been freshened up since a modest effort at Royal Ascot and is not entirely without hope in the 4.10. Fixed odds punters might want to combine Lee’s first four mounts in a multiple bet.
Recommendation: Buy CLIFFORD LEE in Ascot Jockeys
RELIEF RALLY has failed to live up to her juvenile promise in three starts this term, finishing fourth of six when 7-4 favourite for the 7f Fred Darling at Newbury back in April (7-4 favourite), second (3-1 favourite) when dropped to 6f/Listed level at the same venue the following month and second when tried over 5f (7-2), also at Newbury, on her latest start. The William Haggas-trained three-year-old is beginning to look trip-less and can be opposed at short odds in this 5f Listed contest. BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND, three from three below Group 3 level, will be a tough rival while older geldings DEMOCRACY DILEMMA and GO ATHLETIC fit the statistical profile of recent winners and are also respected.
Recommendation: Oppose RELIEF RALLY in Ascot 1.50
Friday’s action on the straight course at Ascot favoured low-drawn runners who raced down the centre of the track and that’s good news for connections of course expert WOOLHAMPTON (stall 5 of 12) in this 5f handicap. Rod Millman’s filly has course figures of 1321661 (3-7), with both unplaced efforts by just a length and a half in big fields (17 and 13 ran). Her course and distance record on good to soft or softer going stands at 111 (3-3) and it will be disappointing if she’s not in the frame. Buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back WOOLHAMPTON in Ascot 4.45
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