Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.

Andrew heads to Redcar and Fakenham for his three stats-based selections on Friday, October 18th…

REDCAR 1.22

BAD HABITS (system – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)

First the bad news – BAD HABITS has the worst of the draw in stall 9 of 9 in this 6f novice stakes. However, on a more positive note, George Boughey’s 78,000gns purchase won’t have to be much to make a winning debut as his rivals have hardly set the world alight on the clock (all bar one of them have previous experience). Backing all Amo Racing-owned newcomers, regardless of age and trainer, would have found 48 winners from 233 bets (20.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £26.23 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 38.04, A/E = 1.26). Those who ran at Redcar recorded form figures of 4131 (2-4), with the winners at 6-1 and 7-2.

FAKENHAM 2.00

THE EXPENSIVE ONE (system – Nigel Twiston-Davies, chasers and hurdlers in October, conditional jockey)

In recent columns, I’ve discussed the fine record of Nigel Twiston-Davies at this time of year and if we had in the proviso that his October runners must have been chasers or hurdlers who were ridden by a conditional jockey claiming at least 3lb his record since 2013 becomes 39 winners from 172 bets (22.7%) for a profit of £56.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. THE EXPENSIVE ONE, runner-up at Newton Abbot last time, qualifies today and can go one better.

FAKENHAM 4.55

UP FOR APPEAL (system – Christian William, long travellers)

Christian Williams does well with ‘long travellers’, horses shipped more than 250 miles from his Welsh base, scoring with 45 of the 173 qualifiers (26%) for a profit of £18.58 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 33.52, A/E = 1.34). Those who started in the front three in the betting were 40 from 118 (33.9%) for a profit of £26.58. UP FOR APPEAL (12-1 best at the time of writing) is unlikely to fall into the atter category but still looks worth a small interest in the hope that the first-time cheekpieces have a positive impact.

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