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Value Bet tips: Saturday May 18

0.5pts e.w. Louis Barthas in 2.25 Newbury at 66/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4) – 50/1 General

1pt win Darkness in 2.40 Newmarket at 16/1 (William Hill)

1pt win Black Run in 3.00 Newbury at 16/1 (General)

0.5pts e.w. Dear My Friend in 3.35 Newbury at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Dear reader…

Inspiral versus Big Rock is the sort of early-season clash the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes is all about and it has the makings of a fascinating Group 1, despite the big two being some way clear of the rest in terms of pure class.

The race for third – providing Inspiral and Big Rock both bring something like their A-games of course – looks quite interesting and if the forecast is correct then Newbury could be looking at drying conditions which would be more suitable for a horse like Flight Plan than recent bet365 Mile winner Charyn.

At an even bigger price, DEAR MY FRIEND – who beat Flight Plan last spring – is tempting as he’d be a much shorter price here had connections opted against rolling the dice on All-Weather Finals day at Newcastle.

He was perfectly entitled to be there seeing as he won three on the bounce between New Year’s Day and early-March, but the issue was that the conditions for the big mile race on Good Friday had been tweaked to make it a handicap, forcing Dear My Friend to concede well over a stone in weight to the majority of his rivals.

He moved quite well for much of the contest and was in front around halfway before weakening right out of it as if something was amiss. However, it was a near-impossible task on reflection and the horse has no doubt been freshened up by a short break since.

Transferring the pick of his all-weather form to the grass is the big question mark, but Dear My Friend was a two-time turf winner in his youth and I just think he’s improved again as a four-year-old after being gelded and having a breathing operation in the autumn.

He’s undoubtedly a risky proposition but wouldn’t be the first prominent racer from a low draw (stall two) to hang in there towards the middle of the track and hit the frame at a huge price in the Lockinge (see Chindit the past two years).

Born to Run

I was intending on putting up Dear My Friend’s stablemate Individualism in the Trade Nation London Gold Cup Handicap too, but the market has reacted accordingly after his two-year-old form received another massive boost with Economics winning the Dante after the declarations were made for this event.

There must be a small amount of disbelief within the Johnston camp that this colt is still a maiden after five starts, but he kept running well in defeat over seven furlongs as a juvenile so they didn’t feel the need to step him up in distance, something he’s clearly bred for being a half-brother to Gold Cup hero Subjectivist.

A mark of 78 for Individualism could prove to be ridiculously generous based on most of his efforts from last year and if he’s a bit sharper for his comeback second to the wildly progressive Ice Max over a mile at Musselburgh, then he could take plenty of beating tackling this longer trip for the first time under bottom weight from stall one.

At what is now almost twice the price of Individualism with most firms, BLACK RUN looks the bet.

He ran in a French Group 3 on his seasonal debut and was entered in the Dante up until the six-day stage, which gives a reasonable indication as to the regard in which he’s held by the Coles, and although the trip to Longchamp didn’t really pan out last month, he bumped into a smart winner there in Calandagan, who could be heading over to Royal Ascot for the King Edward VII.

The third has easily won a Listed race since and the fourth was a close third in the Prix Greffulhe at Saint-Cloud, while Black Run has also done his bit for the form with a 10-furlong handicap success on the Rowley Mile.

Fitted with a tongue-tie at Newmarket and racing on good ground for the first time in his life, having shown a liking for soft in two starts last year, what I loved was the attitude he showed in seeing off Sun God by half a length, after getting challenged at the furlong pole.

In the end I think he was well on top, despite the runner-up having the stands’ side rail to assist him, and they came six lengths clear of the third, 9/4 favourite Sea The Thunder, who was in receipt of 10lb from Black Run.

Sea The Thunder had finished a neck second to Goodwood Odyssey off level weights in a Salisbury novice last October and, with David Menuisier’s horse one of the favourites on Saturday getting ‘just’ the 9lb from Black Run, the prices look a bit out of line.

Any further rain showers on Saturday morning would be a welcome bonus, but not essential.

Sangster to spring a shock

The other one to be with at a wild price at Newbury is LOUIS BARTHAS in the Highclere Castle Gin Carnarvon Stakes.

There’s plenty of guesswork involved when it comes to backing the once-raced maiden in a race of this nature, but the same could be said of Elite Status, Malc and to a lesser extent Relief Rally, who may or may not have trained on after being beaten favourite in the Fred Darling.

Adaay In Devon and James’s Delight are at least hard-fit and in very good form, while perhaps Mister Sketch or Room Service will improve considerably on their comeback efforts in the Greenham.

But none of them are exciting me at the prices in truth and Louis Barthas – whose trainer Ollie Sangster is red-hot right now – might be able to spring a surprise after showing promise on his Kempton debut in November.

He’s clearly been a late-developer, but I liked what I saw from him first time out, faring next best behind a couple of horses who had the benefit of previous racecourse experience and dominated the race from the outset.

A half-brother to the quality (potentially top-class) sprinter Rogue Lightning, who incidentally finished second in a Listed event over this course and distance on his second start, Louis Barthas is a son of Zoustar whose progeny have a tidy strike-rate at Newbury (7-24 at 29.17%) over the years.

Those winners include recent impressive maiden scorer Star Style and Zoulu Chief, who won here on his second career run at 150/1 12 months ago.

Darkness to light the way

Over at Newmarket, the Trustatrader.com Handicap is the main betting race and Divine Libra is well worth taking on, up 7lb and in a deeper field than the one he brushed aside at Chester 10 days ago.

Tim Easterby’s Quest For Fun went into the notebook after his non-staying effort in the Thirsk Hunt Cup recently but I wonder if he might be one for a nice summer handicap at York when the assessor finally gives him a bit more respite (left on 90 for the time being).

He’s not the only northern raider in with a shout here, though, and David O’Meara stablemates Summerghand and DARKNESS both merit some attention.

The 10-year-old Summerghand is rapidly approaching his 100th career start and clearly got no run whatsoever at York in the week, but it’s been a long time since he raced over this far and preference is for the down-in-trip Darkness, who showed up really well for a long way in a mile handicap here at the Guineas meeting.

Despite getting bumped about at the start, Darkness took them along and still travelled strongly up front before the early exertions took their toll at the furlong pole.

He’ll be much happier back at seven furlongs and has generally fared very well on his visits to Newmarket – on both tracks – and he’s now come down 3lb for his two starts so far this term, meaning he’s rated 4lb lower than when winning on the July Course here last summer.

All ground comes alike and a double-figure draw doesn’t look a bad thing with the stalls towards the stands’ side.

Published at 1600 BST on 17/05/24

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