German retail sales rose in 2024, but growth should be more modest this year due to the high level of uncertainty, according to retail association HDE.

Last year, retail sales rose 1.1% compared to the previous year in inflation-adjusted terms, official data showed on Friday. The HDE forecasts 0.5% growth in real terms this year.

“Consumption and the retail sector in Germany will not really gain momentum in 2025 either,” said HDE managing director Stefan Genth.
“There is simply too much uncertainty,” he said. “Wars, high energy costs and overall economic stagnation are a toxic cocktail for consumption.”

In nominal terms, retail sales rose by 2.5% in 2024 and are expected to grow by 2.0% in 2025, according to HDE’s forecast.

The latest HDE survey with 700 retailers shows that 22% of respondents expect sales to increase this year, while almost half of them expect results to be below the previous year’s level.

In December, retail sales fell by 1.6% compared with the previous month, official data showed. Analysts had predicted a 0.2% increase.