Only one horse in Europe reaches Timeform rating of 130

The 2024 Flat season didn’t feel like a stellar one and, in terms of top-end quality, Timeform ratings back that up. A Timeform rating of 130 is the benchmark for a top-class performer and only one horse in Europe reached that level this season – City of Troy in the Juddmonte International.

In 2022 and 2023 there were three horses trained in Europe rated at least 130, while there were six in 2021.

There was also a lack of strength in depth a further rung down the ladder with fewer horses reaching a rating of 125 – Timeform’s benchmark for a high-class performer – than in previous seasons.

There were 16 horses with a high-class rating this season but there were 20 in 2023, 29 in 2022 and 23 in 2021.

Two different tales in the juvenile division

It would be too strong to say the juvenile colts were a weak bunch as there are some promising, lightly-raced sorts who could flourish with time and opportunity. However, the pick of them achieved less on ratings than you would typically expect.

Only one juvenile colt, Shadow of Light, reached a Timeform rating of 120 and he only just hit that figure. A rating of 120 is the lowest awarded to a champion juvenile colt by Timeform since the turn of the century.

There were four colts who reached a rating of 115, which is the same as in 2021 but lower than 2022 (8) and 2023 (6).

The fillies’ achieved more, however, and Lake Victoria‘s rating of 119p is the highest by a juvenile filly based in Europe since Minding was rated 120p in 2015 (US sprinter Lady Aurelia was rated 127 based on her Royal Ascot effort in 2016). Lake Victoria wasn’t the only talented filly, though, as Fillies’ Mile winner Desert Flower achieved a rating of 117p which would have been good enough for top honours every year since Clemmie earned 118p in 2017.

Beckett big improvers for next season

There are currently 15 juveniles with the Timeform Large P symbol, marking them out as capable of significantly better form, and five of them are based with Ralph Beckett.

Beckett had 49 two-year-old winners between the first and last day of the British Flat turf season (including one in Ireland and one in France), and that was the second highest tally of any British trainer behind only Karl Burke who had 56.

Beckett’s two-year-old winners came at a strike-rate around 24% but that climbs to 30% if only focusing on runners since the start of August.

He introduced some promising types in the latter months of the season, with Bright Times Ahead (92P), I Am I Said (92P) and Pride of Arras (90P) awarded the Large P after winning nicely on debut. Participle (84P) and Ar Rayyan (69P) were also given the Large P after offering plenty of encouragement.

Saeed bin Suroor and Owen Burrows impress with two-year-olds

Saeed bin Suroor is working with a much-reduced string nowadays; indeed, between the first and last day of the British Flat season he had only 68 runners. In 2021 that figure was 274.

However, Bin Suroor made good use of the material he was sent and registered a strike-rate of 26.47%, which is behind only fellow Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby (26.67%) among the trainers who had at least 25 runners.

He fared especially well with his two-year-olds in 2024, sending out five winners from 15 runners at a 33.3% strike rate which was the highest strike rate among trainers with at least ten representatives. Owen Burrows also fared well with the select bunch of juveniles he ran (5-17).

Ryan Moore posts superb strike rate

It’s not news that Ryan Moore, long established as one of the world’s best jockeys and with first pick from the stars at Ballydoyle, has continued to fire in the big-race winners.

A strike-rate pushing 30% in Britain and Ireland is notable, however. Between the first and last day of the British Flat turf season, Moore had 119 winners from 404 rides at a strike rate of 29.46%. The next highest strike-rate in that period, among Flat jockeys with at least 20 rides, was posted by Oisin Murphy whose 192 winners came at 21.08%.

Moore’s incredible strike-rate in 2024 also compares favourably to his own record during the turf season in Britain and Ireland in 2022 (22.1%) and 2023 (24.9%).

Productive campaigns for Three Dons and Jordan Electrics

Three Dons and Jordan Electrics were the most prolific winners during the 2024 season, each registering seven victories.

Three Dons had failed to win at two, three or four, so when he narrowly won a mile-and-a-quarter handicap off a mark of only 46 at Leicester in May he hardly seemed an obvious type to climb the ranks.

However, Three Dons, trained by Tony Carroll, won six of his next nine starts and even took his chance in the November Handicap on his final start of the campaign. That proved beyond him but doesn’t detract from a remarkable season during which his Timeform rating rose 39 lb from 51 to 90.

Jordan Electrics was also a surprise improver given he’s an eight-year-old who had plenty of racing already under his belt, but he thrived this season and won seven times, with five of them coming at Hamilton.

He now has nine course wins to his name at Hamilton which is the modern-day record at that track. He produced a smart performance when only narrowly denied in a five-and-a-half-furlong handicap at York on his penultimate start and he ended the campaign rated 30 lb higher than he started it.

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