With Black Friday looming at the end of this week, and November’s salaries hitting consumer bank accounts on the same day, hopes are high that it will be a bumper season, especially after October retail sales proved to be disappointing in the UK.

And that may not just be wishful thinking with data specialist CACI coming up with some interesting numbers to support the view. Yet there are still some caveats that suggest nobody can afford to rest on their laurels.

CACI has dubbed this Friday ‘Super Pay Day’ as an additional 43% of the population will have been paid their monthly salary by this point compared with Black Friday last year. Black Friday 2023 was on 26 November compared to 29 November this time. The significance of such a date shift can’t be ignored in terms of the overall success of Black Friday (and Cyber Monday), despite the age of BNPL making it easier to afford items if shoppers don’t have the the full purchase amount available.

Importantly too, a greater proportion of those in the top income groups (those CACI has called Luxury Lifestyles and Established Affluence) will have been paid in time for Black Friday this year compared to last year.

So, having established that consumers will have plenty of cash, does that mean the sector is set fair for the aforementioned bumper season?

Not quite. Yes, the data shows plenty of intention to shop among all age groups, but there’s also a certain amount of scepticism to overcome. CACI said its numbers show the least affluent segment (dubbed Low Income Living) agree most strongly that Black Friday deals used to be an effective way of saving money, but now feel they’re not as effective anymore (+4ppts likely to state this vs the UK average). 

And 27% of consumers overall think it’s a way for retailers to get more money out of them, while 34% of those in the single most affluent segment (Luxury Lifestyles) think this way, believing consumers don’t actually make savings with a suggestion therefore that the deals aren’t real.

Meanwhile 28% of consumers in total believe the event simply promotes unnecessary consumption.

This certainly presents some challenges because retailers and brands are having to overcome not just scepticism, but moral concerns.

That’s the bad news for any business that has its hopes pinned on the event. And the good news? All groups — both those covering income levels and those analysed by age — still expect to use Black Friday to buy gifts and personal items.

And as is often the case these days, younger shoppers are where the spending bonanza may be concentrated. They’re more likely to make the most of Black Friday, shopping both for themselves and for gifts. Gen Z and Millennials show a higher tendency to say they intend to shop the event and are waiting for Black Friday to buy a specific item (+7ppts and +8ppts, respectively, vs the UK average). 

More specifically, 27% of Gen Z  say that they’re likely to use Black Friday to buy gifts, 9ppts higher than the UK average. Gen Z are also the most likely to use Black Friday to shop for themselves.

Not that consumers are waiting for Black Friday to kick off their festive spend. Three-quarters of consumers say they’ll have started their Christmas shopping by the time Black Friday arrives and this rises to 84% for Gen Z. 

Clearly, Gen Z is somewhat conflicted as younger shoppers are more likely to think Black Friday doesn’t save any money but they’re the key consumers who are most likely to engage in it anyway. 

So what are we to make of all this? It’s obvious that there’s huge potential this year, but success isn’t guaranteed.

Hannah Smith, Consumer Intelligence Lead at CACI said: “Black Friday has been getting increasingly diluted, and slightly less publicity each year, but the indications are that 2024’s iteration has big potential. The upcoming ‘Super Pay Day’, powered by 43% more people having their November pay available to them, will naturally inspire more spending. Yes, negative perceptions about Black Friday still linger, but brands are doing more to dispel that, and for many consumers, it won’t hold them back from using the day to buy big-ticket items and Christmas gifts.

“Importantly, the payday consideration impacts all affluence levels, which means brands taking part should include a range of products that covers all bases in terms of spend potential. We do however know that Gen Z seem to be hanging their hat on this Black Friday more than other generations, so winning their business will go a long way to securing a successful sales period.”