The problem is that Trump and his administration have made it clear that their security priority is China and Europe will just have to do more to look after itself.
Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director of the Royal United Services Institute, told the BBC: “The reality is that whatever we do on defence, the US is going to pivot elsewhere, it is not going to take the lead role in European security that it has done for more than half a century.”
In that context, the government’s promised increase in defence spending may be seen as a short-term tactical move ahead of Starmer’s visit to Washington, rather than an historic response to the existential geopolitical changes posed by Trump’s election.
European diplomats told me they were underwhelmed by the UK defence offer, saying it was not enough to have a real impact. They said the UK would have to spend at least 3% of national wealth soon to give itself a chance to develop the capability it would need.
To do that, the government would have to do more than raid the development budget. Aid charities noted that their spending was a soft target compared to those of massive spending departments such as welfare, health and education.
But few politicians of any political colour appear prepared to start making an argument for a transformation of the post-war European welfare model and prepare voters for a massive change in defence spending.
For now, the government is cutting foreign aid and international charities are furious.
The reduction from 0.5% of national income to 0.3% means £6bn less will be spent on foreign aid each year. Given that billions of this budget still pays for asylum seekers’ hotels here in the UK, the actual amount spent on aid overseas will be about 0.15%.
The prime minister said the UK would use this remaining aid money to help Sudan, Ukraine and Gaza, tackle climate change, and support multinational efforts on global health.
Aid charities were stunned. Save the Children said it was betrayal of the world’s most vulnerable children. The One campaign said it would create huge problems for the delivery of vital humanitarian assistance. The aid network BOND said there would be devastating consequences for millions of marginalised people.
All this after Donald Trump froze America’s development spending arm, USAID.
By cutting foreign aid, the government has broken a manifesto commitment to protect the budget. It has also damaged its policy of using aid to engage more closely with countries in the global south.
David Miliband, head of the International Rescue Committee and former Labour foreign secretary, said the cut was “a blow to Britain’s proud reputation as a global humanitarian and development leader”.
General Sir David Richards, a former chief of defence staff, said the decision to raise defence spending over the next two years was a sound strategic move, bu
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