Who will win Kentucky basketball vs Alabama in SEC showdown today? Our expert prediction

Posted by author February 22, 2025 Basketball

Kentucky and Alabama, the SEC’s two highest-scoring basketball teams, face off for the second time this season today.
Kentucky guards Kerr Kriisa, Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson are all dealing with injuries, with Butler and Robinson’s status for the game uncertain.
Despite Kentucky’s recent defensive improvements, Alabama is favored to win due to its potent offense and Kentucky’s injury concerns.

When Kentucky basketball hosted Alabama in January at Rupp Arena, it pitted the SEC’s two highest-scoring teams against each other. Then their respective offenses went out and lived up to the hype: The Crimson Tide outlasted the Wildcats in a 102-97 slugfest.

The squads square off again this evening in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. And oddsmakers are expecting another point-a-minute affair: When DraftKings released its odds for the game Friday, it set the over/under at 178 ½ points.

But when the Wildcats fell to the Crimson Tide in Lexington on Jan. 18, coach Mark Pope‘s club was in a far better place on the injury front; aside from guard Kerr Kriisa, UK had every other scholarship player available. Heading into tonight’s matchup, Kriisa remains sidelined. And fellow guards Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson are on the mend as well.

Robinson has missed the past three games with a wrist injury. Butler has sat out the past two with an ailing shoulder. During a news conference Friday, Pope said Butler and Robinson would participate, to varying degrees, in practice later that day.

Yet Pope stopped short of stating either would suit up against Alabama.

“We would love to get them back,” he said. “We hope we get them back at some point.

“But, in the meantime, we’re going to go compete with what we have, and we’re going to do it well.”

Here’s what to know about Kentucky’s SEC matchup against Alabama today in Tuscaloosa:

The contest between the Wildcats and Crimson Tide will air on ESPN. You can stream ESPN on Fubo, which offers a free trial.

Authenticated subscribers can access ESPN via TV-connected devices or by going to WatchESPN.com, the WatchESPN app or ESPN+.

UK and Alabama are slated to tip off at 6 p.m. today.

Oct. 23: exhibition vs. Kentucky Wesleyan ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 123, Kentucky Wesleyan 52
Oct. 29: exhibition vs. Minnesota State Mankato ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 98, Minnesota State Mankato 67
Nov. 4: vs. Wright State (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 103, Wright State 62
Nov. 9: vs. Bucknell (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 100, Bucknell 72
Nov. 12: vs. Duke (Champions Classic; State Farm Arena, Atlanta) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 77, Duke 72
Nov. 19: vs. Lipscomb, (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 97, Lipscomb 68
Nov. 22: vs. Jackson State (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 108, Jackson State 59
Nov. 26: vs. Western Kentucky (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 87, Western Kentucky 68
Nov. 29: vs. Georgia State (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 105, Georgia State 76
Dec. 3: at Clemson (ACC/SEC Challenge) ∣ SCORE: Clemson 70, Kentucky 66
Dec. 7: vs. Gonzaga (Climate Pledge Arena; Seattle) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 90, Gonzaga 89 (OT)
Dec. 11: vs. Colgate (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 78, Colgate 67
Dec. 14: vs. Louisville (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 93, Louisville 85
Dec. 21: vs. Ohio State (CBS Sports Classic; Madison Square Garden, New York) | SCORE: Ohio State 85, Kentucky 65
Dec. 31: vs. Brown (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Kentucky 88, Brown 54
Jan. 4: vs. Florida (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Kentucky 106, Florida 100
Jan. 7: at Georgia | SCORE: Georgia 82, Kentucky 69
Jan. 11: at Mississippi State | SCORE: Kentucky 95, Mississippi State 90
Jan. 14: vs. Texas A&M (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Kentucky 81, Texas A&M 69
Jan. 18: vs. Alabama (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Alabama 102, Kentucky 97
Jan. 25: at Vanderbilt | SCORE: Vanderbilt 74, Kentucky 69
Jan. 28: at Tennessee | SCORE: Kentucky 78, Tennessee 73
Feb. 1: vs. Arkansas | SCORE: Arkansas 89, Kentucky 79
Feb. 4: at Ole Miss | SCORE: Ole Miss 98, Kentucky 84
Feb. 8: vs. South Carolina | SCORE: Kentucky 80, South Carolina 57
Feb. 11: vs. Tennessee | SCORE: Kentucky 75, Tennessee 64
Feb. 15: at Texas | SCORE: Texas 82, Kentucky 78
Feb. 19: vs. Vanderbilt | SCORE: Kentucky 82, Vanderbilt 61
Feb. 22: at Alabama, 6 p.m., ESPN
Feb. 26: at Oklahoma, 9 p.m., SEC Network
March 1: vs. Auburn (Rupp Arena), 1 p.m., ABC
March 4: vs. LSU (Rupp Arena), 7 p.m., ESPN2
March 8: at Missouri, noon, ESPN

Record: 18-8 (7-6 SEC)

Alabama 87, Kentucky 79: UK has showcased improvement defensively since its forgettable outing at Ole Miss, in which it gave up 98 points (and forced one turnover against 24 assists) in a lackluster loss. But the four teams Kentucky has faced since then — South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Vanderbilt — don’t possess an offense as electric as Alabama. (No team in the country does, at least statistically.) To be certain, the Wildcats have overcome injuries throughout the season to engineer unexpected victories. But the Crimson Tide is not an opponent to be short-handed against. Even at close-to-full strength, UK couldn’t slow down Alabama last month. And with Butler and Robinson no guarantee to play today, it makes a game the Wildcats aren’t expected to win (KenPom.com gives the visitors just a 30% chance to upset the Crimson Tide) that much tougher. Kentucky will put forth a spirited effort today. But it won’t knock off a Crimson Tide crew determined to avoid a three-game losing streak.

We occasionally recommend interesting products and services. If you make a purchase by clicking one of the links, we may earn an affiliate fee. USA TODAY Network newsrooms operate independently, and this doesn’t influence our coverage.

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.