Five-star forward Caleb Wilson is finally set to commit. The 6-foot-8 forward from Atlanta will choose between Kentucky, North Carolina, and Ohio State in an announcement on Thursday, ending a recruitment that has spanned years.

On3 national basketball analyst Joe Tipton joined Here Comes the Boom for a special Wednesday episode previewing Wilson’s commitment. Tipton said that Wilson’s recruitment has long been known as a two-horse race between Kentucky and North Carolina.

“A couple of weeks ago, maybe even early last week, I did think that Kentucky was the firm leader,” Tipton said. “In my opinion, the Wildcats made a lot of sense. Mark Pope has really taken this Kentucky program to really high hopes this season. Wilson, it really felt like, was trending that way to UK.”

However, the tides have turned of late. Tipton said he sees North Carolina as the favorite heading into Thursday’s commitment.

“It turned out there were some real legs to the UNC rumors. As we head down this final stretch, it does look like North Carolina is now in the driver’s seat,” Tipton said. “I’ve been told from sources that UNC donors and UNC power players are confident heading into Wilson’s Thursday announcement.”

Tipton isn’t completely ruling out Kentucky. Still, it doesn’t look great for the Cats in their pursuit of the top 10 forward.

“To be quite clear, I’m not entirely ruling out Kentucky here until he says where he is choosing,” Tipton said. “However, I do think UK’s chances have fallen significantly as we enter this final stretch.”

What Changed?

Joe Tipton went on Here Comes the Boom on January 9 and said he believed Kentucky was in the driver’s seat. So, what changed?

“I haven’t specifically spoken to Caleb about this, but speaking to people around him, it sounds like Caleb could like the fit a little bit more at North Carolina,” Tipton said. “I don’t know how much he sees the fit at Kentucky. He always spoke highly of North Carolina point guard Elliot Cadeau, who is expected to be back in Chapel Hill next season. It sounds like he likes the idea of playing with him, potentially next season. I think that’s what it boiled down to.”

Then, there’s the aspect of NIL. Tipton isn’t sure how much of a role it played in Wilson’s recruitment.

“Obviously, NIL is a factor in all of these high-level recruitments. I don’t know how significantly that played a part in Caleb’s choice,” he said. “I’m sure he received lucrative offers from both programs. I think the fit was probably the best example of that and just the success that UNC freshmen have had, namely Ian Jackson this season, a former five-star player as well.”

UNC is led by a pair of five-star prospects in Ian Jackson and Drake Powell. Meanwhile, Kentucky doesn’t have any five-star freshmen on its 2024-25 roster.

“Obviously, when [Mark] Pope took over the job, there were not a lot of freshmen that he could’ve landed,” Tipton said. “He’s relying more on experience, so I don’t know if Caleb is able to see that vision as much at UK when it comes to freshmen playing time. Those are a few factors there.”

Where Does Kentucky Go From Here?

Kentucky has the nation’s No. 5-ranked recruiting class in 2025, even without a commitment from Caleb Wilson. Where do go from here if Wilson goes elsewhere?

“I think they immediately pivot to Nate Ament, another five-star recruit,” Tipton said. He’s On3’s No. 2-ranked prospect in the country.”

Kentucky will have its fair share of schools to beat out for Ament. He’s down to a final 11 of Arkansas, BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Alabama, and Texas

“He’s expected to make a decision in either February or March,” Tipton said. “I think UK immediately goes to him. I do think they would have a decent chance with him.”

Tipton believes Kentucky could have a chance with Ament if they make a push. That’s even despite them being a little late to the party.

“I know that Nate is a little bit farther along in his recruitment and UK has been prioritizing Caleb a little bit more to this point. However, I do think they would be able to make up some ground quickly,” Tipton said. “If it’s a little too late for him and he’s already a little bit farther along with other programs involved for him, I think you just look at the transfer portal. There will be plenty of opportunity there.”

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