The extraordinary claims, backed by statements from Canada’s national police force, are the latest development in a dispute that began last year, when Trudeau accused India of involvement in the murder of a Hardeep Nijjar in British Columbia.

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Canada now alleges that Indian officials were involved in a much wider array of illegal activities on Canadian soil. It expelled six Indian diplomats on Monday after India refused to waive their diplomatic immunity for questioning. India responded by ordering six Canadian diplomats to leave.

Trudeau’s allegations have the potential to undermine the public case for western allies strengthening their relations with India, but both the UK and US governments issued relatively muted statements on Tuesday that suggested little change in their approach.

“We have made clear that the allegations are extremely serious and they need to be taken seriously, and we’ve wanted to see the government of India cooperate with Canada in its investigation,” US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters. “Obviously they have not chosen that path.”

At the same time, Miller said India continues to be “an incredibly strong partner of the United States” and that New Delhi is key to the broader US vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Trudeau spoke by phone with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer about the latest developments. A brief readout released by Downing Street didn’t mention India by name, but said both leaders “agreed on the importance of the rule of law” and to remain in “close contact pending the conclusions of the investigation.”

New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters also didn’t refer to India in his statement. “The alleged criminal conduct outlined publicly by Canadian law enforcement authorities, if proven, would be very concerning,” he said.Western countries have increasingly courted India as a geopolitical counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific region — despite their distaste with elements of Modi’s Hindu nationalist government. The UK is seeking a free trade agreement with India, while the US is partnering with the nation on defense, clean technology and energy.

Canada’s claims bring out into the open the question of whether Indian diplomats may be involved in similar activities in other western nations with large Sikh diasporas. The US is already grappling with this issue behind the scenes, adopting a “quiet diplomacy” approach to its own allegation that an Indian government agent ordered the assassination of a US citizen in New York — a plot that was foiled.

“This issue is not unique to Canada, although the diplomatic fallout and the way all of this has unfolded publicly is unique to Canada,” Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, said in an interview.

The US has made a calculation that public shaming will work less effectively than cooperating with India — and to some extent it has been proven correct, she said.

Indian officials were in Washington on Tuesday to discuss the US allegation that one of its agents tried to arrange the killing of Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an American Sikh separatist. Miller said the timing was coincidental to Canada’s claims.

Bloomberg has reported that the internal Indian probe has resulted in a finding that rogue agents were to blame and that several Indian officials have departed the spy agency as a result. On Tuesday, the Hindustan Times reported that India had arrested an official identified in the US indictment as having directed the plot.

India has established no such internal inquiry into Canada’s allegations — instead, it has only denied, obfuscated and attacked in response, Trudeau said Monday. While the difference is also due to the US’s status as a superpower, it does speak to the efficacy of the US approach, Nadjibulla said.

‘It Needs Its Allies’

Canadian police and Trudeau said they spoke out publicly on Monday to counter an ongoing public safety threat and because efforts to work with India were unsuccessful.

Still, Canada’s strategy has been frustrating to allies and may not ultimately be constructive, Nadjibulla said. “Canada cannot effect change of behavior on its own. It needs its allies,” she said. “So while it’s good for us to stand on principle, the efficacy of that will only be determined on whether or not others stand with us.”

India, for its part, has called Canada’s claims “preposterous.” It had designated both Pannun and the slain Sikh separatist in British Columbia, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, as terrorists.

Trudeau and his foreign minister, Melanie Joly, said Monday they had briefed their Five Eyes partners: the US, UK, Australia and New Zealand. A Canadian government official who asked not to be identified to discuss internal matters said they aren’t expecting big shows of public support from allies.

Trudeau and Joly, the official said, understand that this is a sensitive diplomatic matter and other countries may pursue their own approaches. However, the official stressed that allies support Canada’s probe behind closed doors.

Pannun said in an interview that the quiet diplomacy of the other Five Eyes nations won’t stop Modi’s administration. The Indian government feels encouraged that it has faced “no accountability” from the US, UK and others, he said.

“They are not being openly and publicly admonished, and they can continue to order assassinations of pro-Khalistan Sikhs and get away with it,” he said.