UK retail sales remained weak throughout the summer and the outlook remains soft, according to new figures. But the picture seems to be easing, the latest CBI monthly Distributive Trades Survey showed.

Headline retail sales volumes fell for the third consecutive month in the year to August, although the survey doesn’t tell us by how much. It simply shows a weighted balance of those retailers seeing sales falls. So the figure there was -27%, better than the -43% reading recorded in July, but still the second-weakest reading since April.

But retailers expect the downturn in sales to ease further in September with a weighted balance of -17% here.

Sales for the time of year were reported as “poor” in August, but to a lesser extent than the previous month (-21% from -36% in July). And sales volumes are expected to remain depressed next month (-18%).

Retailers anticipate a moderate deterioration in their business situation over the next three months too (-13% from +2% in May).

Retail orders placed with suppliers continued to decline in the year to August, at a broadly similar pace as last month (-42% from -40% in July). Orders are expected to decline again next month but at a more moderate rate (-27%). 

Retailers also reported that stock volumes were “too high” in relation to expected sales in August, but to a lesser extent than last month (+14% from +32% in July). Stock positions are expected to remain firm next month (+18%), the report said.

Digital sales volumes “contracted at a moderate pace” in the year to August (-15% from -7% in July) and are expected to fall at a quicker rate next month (-30%).  

Meanwhile, selling price inflation in the retail sector is set to remain below the long-run average rate next month, while investment and hiring plans are expected to be pared back going forward.

Martin Sartorius, Principal Economist, CBI, said: “Retailers reported increased caution regarding their investment and hiring plans, which seemed to reflect concerns about persistently weak demand conditions. Although households seem to still be feeling the pinch from the cost-of-living crisis, firms should gradually begin to see some tailwinds from consumers’ rising real incomes.” 

He added: “The sector will want to see measures in the budget this autumn to give certainty to firms and incentivise investment. Reforming business rates, introducing a business tax roadmap, and changing the apprenticeship levy would help businesses to deliver on the government’s ambitions to supercharge the economy.”