UKinbound has released its latest Business Barometer, revealing positive expectations for the UK’s inbound tourism sector in the final quarter of 2024.

The survey, undertaken by Qa Research, asked members to assess anticipated business in the latter half of the year (October, November and December), in comparison to the same period in 2023.

45% of businesses stated they expected revenue yields to be about the same in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, while 41% of respondents expect revenue yields to be higher by an average of 13%.

Simile, 45% of businesses expect booking/visitor numbers to be about the same in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, while 26% expect booking/visitor numbers to be higher by an average of 19%.

The USA continues to be one of the best performing destinations for the UK, with 30% of respondents continuing to experience growth from this market, however this has slowed down over the course of 2024.

Additionally, the Chinese market is showing signs of recovering, with 12% (just over 1 in 10) members reporting growth from this market.

Confidence amongst businesses has risen by 3% compared to July, with 63% feeling confident about the impending 12 months. The respondents cited the steady influx of business across the year as a key driver of confidence.  However, this is lower than the 73% high of 2023.

When asked to consider key barriers to growth, 59% of respondents stated economic conditions, such as rising costs, while 29% cited the UK’s international competitiveness. Staff recruitment and retention also ranked highly, with 23% stating it was a key concern.

Joss Croft OBE, CEO of UKinbound said “2024 is shaping up to be a stable year of growth for the UK’s inbound tourism industry. We are continuing to see international visitors choose the UK and visit destinations up and down the country in all seasons of the year.

“By the end of 2024 inbound visitor numbers to the UK are forecast to be 95% of pre-pandemic levels and spend at 92% (when adjusted for inflation) but we really want to see our industry exceed these figures and sustainably grow into 2025 and beyond; although there are challenging headwinds such as rising costs, staff recruitment and retention, and the UK’s international competitiveness.

“We are encouraged by the positive interactions we have had with new Ministers and MPs across a variety of Government departments, and we have our sights set on a range of policy changes; such as introducing a new low cost visitor visa, expanding passport-free travel schemes for under 18-year-olds and introducing a new VAT RES Scheme; that if rolled out would really support businesses and jobs across the country, while expediating growth.”

In 2024 it is forecast that 38.7 million international visitors will visit the UK, spending £32.5 billion. This is 95% and 114% of 2019 levels respectively, but spending would be 92% if adjust for inflation. Compared to 2023, this represents growth of 2% in visits and 5% in nominal spend (2% in real spend) (Source: VisitBritain).

*105 UKinbound members took part in the survey, which was issued in September 2024.