UK shop prices were lower in November but not enough to end a 17-month long of falling shop inflation in the UK as retailers warn of rising prices for consumers.

According to the latest data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC)-NielsenIQ Shop Price Index, overall shop prices were 0.6% lower in November compared to a year ago. While this marks a decrease from October’s 0.8% year-on-year drop, it is the first time in 17 months that shop inflation has increased month-on-month. This shift in trend signals the possibility of rising prices for consumers in the coming months.

Fresh food prices saw a modest increase, rising by 1.2% compared to November 2023, up from 1% in October. Key drivers behind the rise include seafood, which faces higher import and processing costs during the winter months, and tea, which has been hit by poor harvests in key producing regions. The price of coffee, meanwhile, dipped slightly but is expected to rise again as global bean prices near record highs. Despite this, overall food inflation slowed to 1.8% in November, down from 1.9% in October.

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Prices for non-food products, however, continued to be in deflation, falling 1.8% year-on-year, although this was an improvement from October’s 2.1% drop. Retailers have been reducing their discounting practices, but bargains remained available across categories such as fashion, furniture, and electricals, with many retailers offering early Black Friday deals.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson pointed out that November’s figures marked a shift, saying: “November was the first time in 17 months that shop price inflation has been higher than the previous month, albeit remaining overall in negative territory.

“With significant price pressures on the horizon, November’s figures may signal the end of falling inflation.

“The industry faces £7bn of additional costs in 2025 because of changes to employers’ national insurance contributions, business rates, an increase to the minimum wage and a new packaging levy.

“Retail already operates on slim margins, so these new costs will inevitably lead to higher prices.”

Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, noted that consumers remain cautious, with many prioritising essential purchases while holding back on discretionary spending.

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He said: “Shoppers are still being cautious by shopping savvy for the essentials and holding back their discretionary spend, so the lower level of inflation should help sentiment ahead of Black Friday promotions.

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