There’s no such thing as consistency when it comes to consumer confidence, at the moment at least, as trying to read consumer emotions in February is a little tough.

GfK has its long-running Consumer Confidence Index increasing two points to -20 this month and its other measures to gauge sentiment were also all up on January.

This is in stark contrast to yesterday’s (20 February) data from the British Retail Consortium which showed confidence down three points February from January, the fifth consecutive month in which expectations have worsened.

The GfK index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is up three points at -7; seven points better than February 2024 and the forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is up four points at +2, which is two points better than this time last year. But according to the BRC it had its consumer personal financial situation falling 7 points from January.

GfK’s measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is also up two points to -44, one point lower than in February 2024 and expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have improved three points to -31, still seven points worse than February 2024.

The Major Purchase Index is also up three points to -17, eight points better than this month last year, while The Savings Index stayed at +30 in February, one point higher than this time last year.

Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights Director, NIQ GfK, said it its reading: “The biggest improvement is in how consumers see their personal finances for the coming year with an increase of four points that takes this measure out of negative territory to +2.

“The Bank of England interest rate cut on 6 February will have brightened the mood for some people, but the majority are still struggling with a cost-of-living crisis that is far from over. Prices are still rising above the Bank of England’s target; gas and electricity bills remain a challenge for many households. So it’s no surprise that consumer views on the general economic situation are still lower than 12 months ago, suggesting that people don’t expect the economy to show any dramatic signs of improvement soon. Politicians looking for bright spots on the horizon will be disappointed.”

Interestingly, with the survey coming on the day that the UK’s statistics body said January retail sales volumes rose, home delivery expert Parcelhero said that “shoppers may say they are worried about the state of the economy, but that didn’t stop them splashing out at the supermarket”.

Its head of Consumer Research, David Jinks, said consumers might not actually be feeling as bad as they think they are.

“When it came to actually spending money, it seems that they actually splashed the cash more in January than at any time in the last few months,” he said. 

It will be interesting to see how both the retail sales picture and the consumer confidence picture develop in the months ahead.