Then consider the impact on American manufacturers who have businesses spanning Canada, Mexico and perhaps even China. Overall, economists think we could be looking at a hit to US growth of up to 1% – not enough to prompt a recession, but unwelcome nonetheless.

In sheer numbers terms, the hit to the Canadian economy could be greater, economists say. It sells more than $400bn worth of goods to America every year, accounting for a fifth of its income.

But it has the capacity to lower interest rates, and healthy public finances, providing policy makers with scope to cushion the blow for Canadians.

The damage to Mexico’s national income could be less severe, but its central bank has less capacity to cut interest rates making it harder to deflect the pain.

All of this will be anxiously watched by the European Union, likely next in line for those Trump tariffs. Germany, already in a fragile state, accounts for about a third of the goods sold by the EU to the US.

China, despite being the target of Trump’s repeated trade blows could actually be less vulnerable. Its exports to the US account for less than 3% of national income – easily made up elsewhere.

Ironically, some of this resilience is down to the tariffs imposed by President Trump last time round. China simply looked for new markets.

Countries like the UK could also benefit from a furthering of such trade diversion, more access to cheaper goods – something that could keep our own inflation down.

A key point about trade wars is that there are winners as well as losers – particularly for those countries outside President Trump’s firing line. Vietnam and Malaysia for example saw their exports grow rapidly during President Trump’s last term as they scrambled to replace China in selling to America.

If the UK continues to escape the wrath of President Trump, we could actually benefit from closer trading links with his country and indeed from greater foreign investment, if we looked to be a more certain environment than some of our competitors. But of course, our fate remains unclear.

As it stands, the prospects for global growth in 2025 have dulled, but a recession appears very unlikely. However, in Trump world we have learnt very quickly to expect the unexpected – so much still depends on what happens from here.

And that uncertainty itself is harming business confidence both in the US and around the world, putting off key decisions about where to invest and create jobs.

Weaponising uncertainty too comes at a price – even on home soil.