The race for the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 has started to heat up with the Super 8 games underway. South Africa and reigning champions England have already announced themselves as strong competitors having won their Super 8 clashes against both the hosts, USA and the West Indies respectively. 

Meanwhile, the other strong contenders for the title, India and Australia are in a different group altogether and will be facing each other in a mammoth clash in St. Lucia on June 24. So far, both the teams have managed to stay unbeaten in the tournament and will be aiming to keep up the same momentum until the end of the competition. 

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Once the Super 8 clashes are concluded, the four semi-finalists of the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 will be determined according to their group standings. 

For now, the top eight teams of the tournament have been segregated into two groups of four teams each. The top two teams from each group will go through to the semi-finals of the competition. 

• Group A: India, Afghanistan, Australia, Bangladesh
• Group B: England, South Africa, USA, West Indies

In today’s story, The Sporting News takes a quick look at the qualification scenarios for both groups and the four likely semi-finalists. 

Rules for the semi-final qualification in ICC T20 World Cup 2024

In the Super 8 stage of the tournament, the top two sides from each group will qualify for the semi-finals. If more than two teams are tied on points for qualification, the two semi-finalists from each group will be determined using the following process. 

• The team with the greatest number of wins will be placed in the higher position. 
• If two teams are equal in terms of both points as well as wins, the team with the higher Net Run Rate of the two will progress. 
• If the two teams are equal in Net Run Rate as well, the team with a better head-to-head record between the two will qualify.
• If somehow the two teams still remain to be equal, the team with a higher ranking according to the ICC Men’s T20I Rankings will qualify. Standings as at the 31st of May, 2024 will be considered. 

Current ICC T20I rankings for Super 8 teams: India (1st), Australia (2nd), West Indies (3rd), England (4th), South Africa (5th), Bangladesh (9th), Afghanistan (10th), USA (17th)

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Semi-final qualification scenarios for teams in Group 1: India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Australia

Group 1 of the Super 8 round is much trickier than it seems to be, despite the two clear favourites to qualify in India and Australia. Afghanistan and Bangladesh both have recently made a reputation of playing the role of giant slayers, especially Afghanistan. 

India

India have started their Super 8 campaign well, with a 47-run win over Afghanistan in their first Super 8 clash. With 2 points already on board, they know that if they beat Bangladesh in their next game, qualification will likely be in the bag.

In such a case, final Super 8 clash against Australia will be a battle for top spot in the group. After their win over Afghanistan, the only scenario where India might get eliminated is if they lost both their next matches.

Chance of qualification: 90% 

Afghanistan 

Afghanistan have been in stunning form in the ongoing T20 World Cup group stages. But having lost their first Super 8 game to India, their chances of going through to the semifinals have diminished considerably. 

Now, they have no option but to defeat both Bangladesh and Australia to progress to the semifinals which might be a bit unlikely.

Chance of qualification: 20%

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Australia

The 2021 World T20 champions are odd-on favourites alongside India to qualify for the semifinals from this group. 

With the win against Bangladesh in their first Super 8 match, Australia are on the cusp of securing a spot in the semi-final. Only consecutive defeats to Afghanistan and India will deny them a chance which seems unlikely. With the next match against Afghans, Aussies know a win will guarantee them a semi spot before their showdown with India.

Chance of qualification: 90%

Bangladesh

Out of all the teams in Group A, Bangladesh are the least likely to qualify for the semi-finals. Bangladesh struggled in their group games, but managed to scrap victories. But their Super 8 journey started with a defeat.

After their loss against Australia, their hope of qualification have dwindled further. They will be facing India in their next game and if they lose that, they will be knocked out. Bangladesh need to beat India and Afghanistan to stand a chance of progressing.

Chance of qualification: 15%

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Semi-final qualification scenarios for teams in Group 2: England, South Africa, USA, West Indies

Group 2 of the Super 8s is undoubtedly the more competitive group out of the two groups with heavyweights like South Africa, England and the West Indies. South Africa and England won their opening two games of the Super 8s and are currently in prime position for semi-final qualification. 

England

Reigning World T20 champions, England barely secured qualification for the Super 8s with a number of events going their way. But in their first Super 8 game against the West Indies, the English secured a dominant win with 8 wickets, shooting up their Net Run Rate.

They suffered a narrow 7-run defeat to South Africa in the second Super 8 match. But they still look good to qualify with only a match against USA left to

Chance of qualification: 90%

South Africa

The Proteas are always a threat in World Cups, and have proved that once again having won all of their games that they have played in the tournament so far. They started the Super 8 stage by defeating the United States. Despite a fighting effort, USA fell short of South Africa’s total of 194 runs by 18 runs.

South Africa beat England in the second Super 8 match to take lead in group 2.

Chance of qualification: 90%

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USA

Co-hosts of the tournament, USA have already done a commendable job by qualifying for the Super 8s. They lost their first Super 8 game against South Africa but displayed tremendous grit nonetheless. They will next face West Indies in a must win game to stay in the competition. However, it is likely that their run in the 2024 T20 World Cup will end with the Super 8 stage.

Chance of qualification: 5%

West Indies

Following a strong group stage finish with four wins, West Indies struggled against the reigning champions, England in their opening Super 8 clash. The Windies are a strong team and one of the favourites to lift the title. They are expected to win their next match against USA.

But they will face a must-win match against South Africa which could actually determine if either team progresses to the semifinals. West Indies cannot afford anything other than a win in that match.

Chance of qualification: 40%

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How will the semi-finals fixture be determined? 

The Semi-final fixtures of the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 will be determined by the position of teams after the Super 8 games conclude. The semi-final fixture will be determined by the following process. 

• Semi-final 1: Winner of Group A vs Runners-up of Group B
• Semi-final 2: Winner of Group B vs Runners-up of Group A

NOTE: If India qualify for the semi-final, they will be playing in the second semi-final in Guyana on June 27. 

When are the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 semi-finals?

Semi-final 1 is scheduled at the Brian Lara Cricket Stadium in Trinidad and Tobago on June 26, while the semi-final 2 will be played on June 27 at the Providence Stadium in Guyana. 

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