Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.

Andrew heads to Bath, Ayr and Newcastle for his four stats-based selections on Tuesday, October 1st…

BATH 1.30

GILBERT (system – Cityscape, soft or heavy going)

GILBERT’s chance is far from obvious – Adam West’s five-year-old finished last of 11 at Windsor on his latest start – but that was on good to firm going and today’s heavy conditions could help the son of Cityscape to bounce back to some sort of form. His sire’s progeny are nine from 45 on heavy ground (+£23.95 to a £1 level stake at SP) and he’s placed in two of his last three starts on soft or heavy going.

AYR 1.40

POWER OF GOLD (system – John & Sean Quinn, Ayr)

It was hard to make ground from off the pace at Ayr’s Western meeting last month and that was certainly the case in the 1m Ayrshire Cancer Support Handicap when the winner (“disputed lead, led after 2f”) and short-head runner-up (“disputed lead”) were in the van throughout. POWER OF GOLD, sent off at 16-1, did well to finish fourth under a patient ride in that Class 5 contest and looks worth an each-way dabble today. The likely stronger pace in this apprentice handicap will suit and, since 2010, his stable is 45 from 261 at Ayr (17.2%) for a profit of £41.91 (expected winners = 34.75, A/E = 1.29).

NEWCASTLE 5.30

PONS AELIUS (system – Charlie Johnston, very small fields)

Charlie Johnston has had a difficult season, but the yard’s fortunes have taken an upturn in recent weeks. There’s an interesting stat regarding the yard’s record in very small fields since Charlie took over the licence from his father and had we bet all his runners in fields of five or less we’d have won 40 of our 146 bets (27.4%) and made a profit of £39.11 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 31.50, A/E = 1.27). On the all-weather only the score is 17 from 51 (33%) for a profit of £41.99. The yard’s runners, often ridden prominently, seem better equipped to cope with small-field tactical affairs, so perhaps PONS AELIUS (4-1 third favourite at the time of writing) can get the better of his four rivals in this 2m contest.

NEWCASTLE 7.00

FORMBY (system – Mayson, first run since gelded)

Progeny of the sire Mayson have a good record on their first start following a gelding operation, landing 16 of their 84 starts (19.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £24.54 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 9.88, A/E = 1.62). The bulk of the profits came on the all-weather and Julie Camacho’s FORMBY, gelded since a respectable 33-1 sixth of 13 in a 6f Southwell maiden last month, can get off the mark in the first-time hood.

	Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.	Claim Offer
Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets	T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.	Claim Offer

Check out the best horse racing betting sites in the UK right now.

New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK

Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:

• New customers aged 18 or over opt in and stake £10+ on any sporting event.
• The minimum odds for a qualifying bet are 1/2 (1.50).
• Once the qualifying bet settles 3x £10 free bets will be awarded to your account.
• Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with odds of 3/10 (1.30) or greater.
• Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
• Each Way bets, system bets and profit boost are not permitted for qualifying bet.
• Free bets expire after 7 days of the qualifying bet settling, are non-withdrawable and stakes not returned with winnings.
• Further terms and conditions apply.

Related