Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount writes for the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, both published by the Racing Post, as well as GG.co.uk. His stats and systems based approach to value bets is a proven formula over time. Andrew provides SportsCasting readers with his latest thoughts below.
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18+ begambleaware.org. Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Place a qualifying £10 fixed odds bet at odds of 1/2 or greater. Qualifying bet cannot be placed in-play or cashed out early. Free bet stakes not included in any winnings from the free fixed odds bets. Free bets expire in 28 days if unused.
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Andrew bids to end the week on a high with two recommended bets/trades at Naas and Ffos Las on Sunday, October 13th…
SAKTI has won just a Dundalk maiden at odds of 1-4 from seven starts but has finished second on four occasions and looks a worthy buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market. Ger Lyons’ filly has finished unplaced the last twice but her two-and-a-half length fifth in the Listed Hurry Harriet Stakes at Gowran Park on her penultimate start was a solid effort given that she had the worst of the draw and challenged very wide. She recorded a career-best RPR (Racing Post Rating) when a close-up fourth to Tarawa in Group 3 company at the Curragh last time and that is working out well, with the runner-up Hanalia and third-placed Wingspan running one-two in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes back at the Curragh next time when both starting at 12-1. Fixed odds punters have the option of backing her each-way.
Recommendation: Back SAKTI in Naas 2.50
In recent years Dan Skelton has a very poor record with his chase debutants who are pitched straight into handicap company under top weight, failing to score with any of the 21 qualifiers since the beginning of 2021. Plenty of these were sent off at short odds and the expected number of winners based on their prices was 4.06. ASTA LA PASTA shares top weight honours with MOVE IT LIKE MINNIE in this 2m novices’ limited handicap chase and could be worth taking on. The six-year-old can race with the choke out and that could be his undoing under a big weight on very soft ground. Sell in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market.
Recommendation: Oppose ASTA LA PASTA in Ffos Las 3.20
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