Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew bids to start the new week on a high with three stats-based picks at Yarmouth on Monday, October 7th…
YARMOUTH 1.40
FERNANDO (system – Ed Walker, nursery debut, 7f+, turf)
Ed Walker does well with his nursery debutants, especially those who are running over 7f or further on turf. Backing all the qualifiers would have found nine winners from 28 bets (32.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £30.13 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.06, A/E = 2.22). FERNANDO has been gelded since beating only a couple home when 50-1 for a Kempton novice in August and showed form on soft ground when an 18-1 fifth of ten at Ffos Las on his penultimate start.
YARMOUTH 2.15
CHADLEENY (system – Ed Walker, second time out 2yos, won or beaten by 5L or less on debut)
ED Walker also has a fine record with his second time out juveniles, especially those who showed promise on their debuts by winning or finishing with five lengths of the winner. He’s scored with 25 of the 81 qualifiers (32.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £27.65 to a £1 level stake at P (expected winners = 19.87, A/E = 1.31). So far this year, Walker is three from six on this angle (+£7.03) and perhaps CHADLEENY, only beaten by 4.75L when eight of 12 at Kempton last month, can make it four from seven.
YARMOUTH 5.45
DUSK DAME (system – Twilight Son, first time blinkers)
Progeny of the sire Twilight Son have a useful record in first-time blinkers, landing seven of their 44 starts for a profit of £15.63 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those aged two or three are five from 25 are five from 25 for a profit of £23.75. DUSK DAME bombed out at Leicester last time but was a winner on heavy ground in a first-time visor at Ffos Las in August and the new headgear can perk him up.
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