England’s Ashes plans next year could be altered by the outcome of their final two Tests against New Zealand this month
WELLINGTON — England return to the scene of the most dramatic Test of the Bazball era this week when they take on New Zealand at the Basin Reserve aiming to secure a first away series win in two years.
It’s been 22 months since Ben Stokes’ men lost a dramatic final Test here against the Black Caps by one run after falling agonisingly short in their chase of 258 despite making the hosts follow on.
There are just six survivors in the England team from that frantic match, with wicketkeeper Ben Foakes, Jack Leach, Ollie Robinson and the retired duo of James Anderson and Stuart Broad the missing members of the latest XI.
England, who have named an unchanged team for this second Test after winning last week’s series opener in Christchurch by eight wickets, know putting right the wrongs of that encounter here in February last year will wrap up a first away Test series victory since they triumphed 3-0 in Pakistan in December 2022.
They look in good shape, too, with Stokes brushing aside his complaints about the International Cricket Council punishing him and his team for a slow over rate in Christchurch to reflect on what happened the last time here at the Basin.
“Was it a New Zealand umpire at square leg?” he joked about the potential no-ball that wasn’t given and would have tied the scores one delivery before Neil Wagner took the final wicket of Anderson.
“It was an amazing game to be a part of. For a Test match to get down to one run was a pretty amazing thing to be part of. I remember saying at the end it was hard to feel too disappointed because of the emotions we were going through watching the game unfold as it did.
“The crowd here was getting so involved with the game and even though we were the losing side, it was about taking it all in. To be involved in a game like that was pretty special.”
Asked if he would enforce the follow on again this week, Stokes replied: “It will be easier without Broad and Anderson! I don’t regret it.
“It ended up being a good game and we were only ever one run away from winning after enforcing the follow on. It would be nice to be in that situation again this week and scratching my head wondering whether we enforce the follow on or not. We will see.”
An unchanged team this week means Ollie Pope retains the wicketkeeping gloves and Jacob Bethell, who’s just been handed a two-year England central contract, remains at No 3.
Chris Woakes also retains his place, with Stokes and coach Brendon McCullum deciding against playing specialist wicketkeeper Ollie Robinson, who arrived last weekend after the tour-ending injury to Jordan Cox, or a fresh seam bowler in either Matt Potts or Olly Stone.
“There was a conversation [about Ollie coming in as keeper],” said Stokes. “After a couple of days of me and Baz looking back at that last game, the whole team set up and make up looked really good.
“We had all bases covered from a bowling point of view and our batting line-up was really deep with Brydon [Carse] coming in at 10. The other team would have been bringing Ollie in but we like the whole make-up of the team and I think everyone who played last week put in a performance at some point that helped us win.”
Yet that doesn’t mean England will stick with this balance of team, with Pope keeping and batting at six rather than No 3, when Jamie Smith, on paternity leave for this tour, returns next summer.
“When Jamie is back in the team I think we will slot back to how we were,” Stokes said. “We will no doubt see Pope back up to three and Smudge back into his role he was in for the whole summer.”
If Bethell’s run at three in this series produces more innings like his unbeaten 50 that saw England home in their Christchurch chase, selection for the next Test, against Zimbabwe at Trent Bridge in May, might become more interesting.
England obviously see something special in the 21-year-old, who made his white-ball debut in September, hence why they’ve upgraded his development contract to a full two-year deal.
How he responds this week will be one of the things to watch out for. Another will be how Brydon Carse, whose central contract has been extended to two years after Christchurch, backs up his 10-wicket performance in the opening Test.
There’s nothing from that match or his first two Tests in Pakistan in October that suggests there’ll be any let-up from a bowler who already looks locked in for next winter’s Ashes series in Australia.
Mitchell Santner, who took 13 wickets in his last Test against India at Pune in October, is set to come in at a venue where Australia’s Nathan Lyon took 10 wickets in the last Test played here back in March.
New Zealand failed to select a spinner for that match, which they lost by 172 runs, but are unlikely to make the same mistake again. Santner’s heroics in the second Test against India came during his team’s barely-believable 3-0 win in a country where no touring side had won a series in 12 years.
Santner could come in for fellow all-rounder Nathan Smith or the retiring Tim Southee, innocuous in Christchurch and who the Black Caps might rest ahead of his big farewell at his home ground of Hamilton in the final Test of this series.
England’s hopes of making next June’s final at Lord’s are, for want of a better phrase, toast. They fell out of the running the moment they lost their series in Pakistan 2-1 in October.
There are a series of freak results that could still see them make it if they won 3-0 in New Zealand but to save us all a lot of time I won’t go into those and will instead tell you confidently it’s not happening.
New Zealand, whose eight dropped catches cost them dearly in the first Test, can still make it if they win this series but they are close to needing snookers too.
One scenario where they’d qualify is if Australia draw their five-match home series against India 1-1, South Africa, already 1-0 up against Sri Lanka, draw that two-match series and their next at home to Pakistan and then the Sri Lankans draw their home series against Australia, also two Tests, in the New Year.
It’s possible the Kiwis might make it if Australia hammer India 5-0 and win in Sri Lanka but they’d still need South Africa to draw both their home series. It looks unlikely.
Huge. England have won the opening Test of every single away tour under coach Brendon McCullum and Stokes but the only series they’ve won is the first of those in Pakistan in December 2022.
After winning the first Test in New Zealand in early 2023, India earlier this year and Pakistan in October they went on to lose every single remaining Test of those series that finished 1-1, 4-1 and 2-1 respectively.
This year they have at least now won more Tests than they have lost – eight victories to seven – but securing this series would ensure that remains the right side of the ledger. Add in that this is the Bazballers’ last away Test series until next winter’s Ashes and winning it takes on even more significance.
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