Consumers’ festive spending in the West End of London is predicted to reach £1.7 billion this season, up 3.2% year on year.

That’s according to the New West End Company (NWEC), the body that represents businesses in the crucial shopping neighbourhood in central London. 

That said, “muted UK consumer confidence means domestic festive spending is expected to grow by just 1.6%”. But an influx of international visitors to the capital is expected to drive international spending up by 5.8%”.

That’s pretty impressive given that London is still reeling from the impact of the previous government’s decision to end tax-free spending for tourists and the current government showing no signs of bringing it back so far. 

Recent NWEC data estimates the loss of tax-free shopping cost West End retailers £220 million in the first half of 2024, and £400 million for the whole of 2023.

Back with the forecast, NWEC also said that festive spending will peak during the weekend of 7/8 December, with consumers estimated to spend between £40 million and £50 million that weekend alone.

The prediction is based on new economic modelling, which includes the fact that flight bookings to London over the festive period are already 11% higher than in 2023, driven by visitors from the Gulf (+26%), followed by China (+20%) and the US (+19%). 

This follows a strong year for UK tourism, with international visitors to London up 9% in the year-to-date, “bringing with them significant spending power”.

That peak weekend will coincide with NWEC and Great Ormond Street Hospital Charity (GOSH Charity) partnering to make 7 December a ‘Big Day of JOY’ — “transforming Oxford Street into a hub of special festive experiences”, including on-street entertainment and in-store activations.

As for the way spending will pan out, while domestic spending is expected to gradually increase week-by-week from November onwards, “international spending experiences a shorter and more pronounced burst, expected to peak during the last week of Christmas trading (w/c 16 December),” NWEC said.

The district is also expected to benefit from a last-minute gift rush over the weekend of 21/22 December. And as this will be all about last-minute gifts and stocking fillers, then jewellery and watches, consumer electronics and health and beauty categories are all likely to have their biggest single domestic sales days of the festive period over this weekend.