Next has issued a trading update for the August to October quarter and business seems to be strong. The retailer said that full-price sales in the third quarter were up 7.6% versus last year. This was 2.6% ahead of its guidance for the period.

Not that the company was claiming too much credit for the uplift, It said: “We believe the strong performance was driven by the early arrival of colder weather this year, versus an unusually warm September and early October last year.”

But it means the retailer is increasing its guidance for Q4 full-price sales growth by 1%, to 3.5%. 

Admittedly, 3.5% is significantly lower than the rise it saw in Q3 (although Q4 sales should be up 9% against two years ago). The forecast — which covers November to January — comes as the company said it’s being cautious as the strength in Q3 “is likely to have pulled forward sales from Q4”.

That said, the improved sales in Q3 along with the forecast for Q4 add £43 million to full-price sales and £10 million to profit so it’s upgrading its profit guidance for the full year from £995 million to £1.005 billion.

Looking at the detail of the Q3 performance, online sales for Next rose 7.8%, beating the 4.2% rise of the year to date, while online Label sales rose 8% against 6% for the year so far. That means total online sales were up 7.9%, much better than the 4.9% of the year to date.

Retail sales through its stores rose 2.9% in Q3, a pleasing swing from a 0.8% dip for the year to date.

Total UK sales were up 5.8% in the quarter and 2.4% in the year so far, while online overseas sales rose 20.4% this quarter and 22% for the first nine months of the financial year.

Total full-price product sales were up 8.1% in the quarter and 5.6% for the year.

We won’t know how accurate its forecasting is until 7 January when the company will release a Christmas trading update.