The 2024 NBA playoffs are set, and there is plenty of intrigue. 

The Celtics and Nuggets are heavy favorites to meet in the Finals. Spoiler alert: that is where these predictions are headed. But there are some first-round matchups that are way harder to call. There should be quite a few upsets given how a few of these teams can attack specific weaknesses of higher-seeded opponents.

Here are predictions on how every series and round will go.

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NBA Playoffs bracket 2024

Here are the first-round matchups in each conference:

Eastern Conference

(1) Celtics vs. (8) Heat

(2) Knicks vs. (7) 76ers

(3) Bucks vs. (6) Pacers

(4) Cavaliers vs. (5) Magic

Western Conference

(1) Thunder vs. (8) Pelicans

(2) Nuggets vs. (7) Lakers

(3) Timberwolves vs. (6) Suns

(4) Clippers vs. (5) Mavericks

NBA Playoffs predictions: Eastern Conference First Round picks

(1) Celtics vs. (8) Heat

This is going to be a bloodbath. The Celtics could lose Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and they would still be favored in this series. Winning even one game would be a consolation for the Jimmy Butler-less Heat.

Winner: Celtics

MORE: How long the Heat will be without Jimmy Butler

(2) Knicks vs. (7) 76ers

New York has had Philly’s number this year, winning three of the four games during the regular season. Joel Embiid played in just one of those matchups, which was a 36-point blowout win for the Knicks.

The 76ers simply haven’t been able to score against this gritty Knicks defense. They were limited to a 1990s-style 86.5 points per game in those four matchups. Many of those outputs came short-handed, but this Knicks defense is legitimately great. Isaiah Hartenstein made my All-Defensive team ballot, O.G. Anunoby is a lockdown wing, and Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo are solid switchable players. 

Embiid will be the best player in this series. Traditionally, that determines the winner, but Jalen Brunson isn’t too far behind him and Embiid’s conditioning still isn’t where it needs to be. This is going to be an all-out war.

I’m giving the edge to the Knicks but not feeling good about it. 

Winner: Knicks

(3) Bucks vs. (6) Pacers

The Pacers have owned the Bucks, going 4-1 against them in the regular season. It’s been a heated rivalry, marked by a hilarious dispute about a game ball after Giannis Antetokounmpo dropped a career-high 64 points. Tyrese Haliburton has leaned into it, copying Damian Lillard’s iconic “Dame Time” celebration after defeating the Bucks in the In-Season Tournament. 

Making matters even worse for the Bucks is that Antetokounmpo’s status is in doubt. He’s working his way back from a nasty calf strain that is expected to keep him out of the start of the series. 

The Bucks have been sliding all season, going 17-19 after Doc Rivers took over for Adrian Griffin. The Pacers haven’t quite replicated their early season success, but they did finish on a strong note by winning six of their last eight games. That included a 157-point barrage in their final game of the regular season. 

I’m going with the upset here and picking the Pacers. Expecting the Bucks to flip a switch at this point, especially with Antetokounmpo at less than 100 percent, is unrealistic. 

Winner: Pacers

(4) Cavaliers vs. (5) Magic

These two teams split the season series. They’re pretty even on paper, with both fielding excellent defenses. This series will be a rock fight. 

The Cavs were in a slump to close their regular season. They still haven’t quite figured out the best way to play Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland together. The same goes for Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. There is too much overlap in skill, and head coach J. B. Bickerstaff couldn’t figure out how to fix that in a rough first-round loss to the Knicks last year. 

The Magic are a very young team, but they’ve shown a lot of poise this year. Jalen Suggs is a top-two defensive guard in the league (you could either go him or Alex Caruso) who should guard Mitchell and Garland well. 

Paolo Banchero has been able to get his against the Cavs, averaging 23.0 a game. Orlando’s other main guys have struggled. 

The Cavs tanked their last game of the season to get this matchup. They clearly like their chances against the Magic. It’s going to come down to who can score, and they have better shooting in that area. 

Winner: Cavaliers

NBA Playoffs predictions: Western Conference First Round picks

(1) Thunder vs. (8) Pelicans

Yes, the Thunder are young, but it’s no fluke that they earned the top seed in the West. They were a conference-best 33-20 against teams above .500 this season.  They are a very well-balanced team that should cruise through the first round. 

Winner: Thunder

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(2) Nuggets vs. (7) Lakers

The Nuggets are going to be big favorites to come out of the West. They have played well against the Lakers, going 3-0 against them during the regular season. These guys went 16-4 during last year’s title run. It’s unfathomable that they’d get bounced in the first round.

The Lakers have also been playing well, but they simply have not found a way to beat the Nuggets. D’Angelo Russell, one of their X-Factors, hasn’t been able to stay on the floor. And Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray carved them up with their two-man game all year. 

Winner: Nuggets

MORE: Lakers vs. Nuggets keys to the series & prediction

(3) Timberwolves vs. (6) Suns

The Timberwolves have a great offense but struggle to score when Anthony Edwards is taking a breather. The Suns have a dynamite offense in theory but haven’t been able to play up to their potential. 

This is the worst possible matchup for the Wolves. The Suns took all three games during the regular season by double digits, including a 125-106 win in the last game of the year. Edwards was ineffective in those contests, averaging just 14.3 points on 31.0 percent shooting from the field. The Wolves turned it over like crazy. Kevin Durant has been amazing against Minnesota, averaging 22.7 points on 60.5 percent shooting from the field. 

Minnesota’s defense has thrived by forcing teams into midrange shots. Phoenix is one of the best in the league at those looks, which plays again into that bad matchup factor. And as big as the Wolves play, the Suns have been deadly when they go with smaller units.

This is going to be a weird series for Karl-Anthony Towns. Who does he defend? There’s a lot of stuff that Minnesota likes to do that won’t work that well against Phoenix. 

Winner: Suns

(4) Clippers vs. (5) Mavericks

This is the third time that Luka Doncic will be facing off against the Clippers in the first round. He was bounced twice, in 2020 and 2021. 

That was a much different team, where the Mavs with Kristaps Porzingis struggled to match up with the small ball units of the Clippers. Kyrie Irving has been terrific next to Doncic, as have their other new additions. 

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The Mavs have been almost unbeatable with Daniel Gafford in the starting lineup, going 18-3 in those games. The lob chemistry between Doncic and Gafford was immediate. PJ Washington has also been a nice addition, playing better defense than he ever has before. 

The Clippers have been going in the other direction. After briefly claiming first place in the West on Feb. 6, they went 17-16 and fell to the No. 4 seed. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have both been dealing with knee soreness. George has still been effective, but Leonard missed the last eight games of the season. 

With Leonard’s effectiveness a question mark and how well Luka and Co. have been this year, this series is tilting toward Dallas. 

Winner: Mavericks

NBA Playoffs predictions: Conference Semifinals picks

(1) Celtics vs. (4) Cavaliers

The Cavaliers would need to be fully firing on all gears to stand a shot against the Celtics. That happened in their 105-104 victory in March, with Mitchell out. Cleveland has been sliding since then. 

The Celtics are going to steamroll their way to the Finals. They totally outclassed the rest of the conference, winning it by 14 games while taking their foot off the pedal at the end of the year. They should win comfortably.

Winner: Celtics

(2) Knicks vs. (6) Pacers

Tom Thibodeau is going to grind these games down and have his team prepared to stop the Pacers’ transition attack. Anunoby knows all of Pascal Siakam’s tricks and has guarded him well in the past. And Brunson has played like a top-six MVP candidate this season. 

Winner: Knicks

(1) Thunder vs. (5) Mavericks

These teams split the regular season matchup 2-2, but that included a blowout Thunder win in the last game of the year against the Mavs’ deep bench. 

Doncic has had a ton of success against the Thunder, averaging an absurd 34.0 points, 13.5 assists and 11.5 rebounds on 55.6 percent shooting from the field. He has the playoff experience, and we’ve seen his game scale well in the postseason. 

This is where the Thunder’s inexperience catches up to them. The Mavs have great rim protection to combat their heavy driving style, and they also have veterans who have been here before.

Winner: Mavericks

(2) Nuggets vs. (6) Suns

The Suns might have a chance to steal a few games by outscoring the Nuggets, but they have not shown any consistency this year, and they’re not going to find it against one of the best teams in the league. 

Denver got past these guys in six games last year. The Suns do have Bradley Beal now, but that’s not enough to close the gap. 

Winner: Nuggets

NBA Playoffs predictions: Conference Finals picks

(2) Nuggets vs. (5) Mavericks

Jokic vs. Doncic would be electric if the bracket goes down this way. Get ready for a passing clinic. The Nuggets won the season series 2-1. 

Those two stars might play close to a draw, but the Nuggets have better supporting talent. As good as Irving and the Mavs’ bench has been, the Nuggets’ top five guys have the best chemistry in the league. 

Winner: Nuggets

(1) Celtics vs. (2) Knicks

The Knicks are the best-positioned team in the East to challenge the Celtics. This one still shouldn’t be close. 

With Julius Randle out for the entire playoffs, the Knicks have had to rely very heavily on Brunson for their advantage creation. The Celtics have too many guys to throw at him. They can mix up coverages and primary defenders, forcing other guys to beat them. 

The Knicks do have fantastic role players who can knock down shots, but their ability to generate shots for themselves is a little bit of a dicier proposition. The Celtics can shut the water off and they have great scorers at all five spots. This is too much to overcome. 

Winner: Celtics

NBA Finals pick and prediction

(1) Celtics vs. (2) Nuggets

We all know that this is where the Finals are probably headed. Denver has the best player in the world and the championship experience. Boston has the deepest top six that we’ve seen in decades. The Celtics were the best regular-season team by a mile. 

Despite that regular season success against the rest of the league, the Celtics lost both of their games to the Nuggets by a combined eight points. That’s not enough to say anything definitive, but Denver looked much more polished at the end of games where Jokic knew exactly what he was going to do. 

The Celtics might have been holding some cards in their back pocket. Jrue Holiday had guarded massive players like Embiid, but Joe Mazzulla refrained from using him against Jokic in either of those games. 

Boston also shot very poorly from 3, which is a death knell given how many of them it gets up. With a little better luck, the Celtics would have won both games. 

The Celtics are certainly the shakier team during winning time. Tatum’s propensity to settle for bad fadeaways at the end of the clock can be maddening. But they are the better team on paper. Mazzulla doesn’t get nearly the credit he deserves for being a very smart and innovative coach. This is Boston’s time. 

Winner: Celtics