March Madness projections: What seed is Kentucky basketball for 2025 NCAA Tournament?

Posted by author January 28, 2025 Basketball

LEXINGTON — Kentucky basketball had only one game last week. One that didn’t go its way: UK lost, 74-69, at Vanderbilt.

But the setback did little to alter the Wildcats‘ seeding in recent NCAA Tournament projections.

As of Jan. 27, Bracket Matrix projected Kentucky’s average seed as 2.83, appearing in all 80 of its brackets. That’s only a slight drop from Jan. 21, when Bracket Matrix listed UK coach Mark Pope‘s squad with an average seed of 2.51.

The reason for the Wildcats’ (14-5, 3-3 SEC) stout projected seed is their success in high-level games this season. They’re 6-5 in the ultra-important Quad 1 contests, the matchups NCAA selection committee members heavily consider when they start filling out the bracket on Selection Sunday. Kentucky’s six Quad 1 victories are tied with Texas A&M and Iowa State for third most in the country entering Monday; Auburn (11) and Oregon (seven) are first and second in that category.

Bracketologists.com, which bases its bracket solely on NET rankings, listed the Wildcats as a 4-seed, facing 13-seed Arkansas State in the first round. BracketWAG.com listed Kentucky as the No. 2 seed in the West Region, with No. 15 seed Wisconsin Milwaukee the first-round foe.

Here’s a look at Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament résumé as of Monday evening, as well as projections from a variety of national outlets:

NET ranking: 14

KenPom ranking: 22

Quad 1 record: 6-5

Quad 2 record: 0-0

Quad 3 record: 2-0

Quad 4 record: 6-0

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi released his latest update Jan. 25, the day before Kentucky’s setback at Vandy. At the time, Lunardi listed UK as the No. 3 seed in the South Region, traveling to Wichita, Kansas, for a matchup with No. 14 seed Northern Colorado in the first round. He had Louisville tabbed as the South Region’s 6-seed, meaning his scenario would have the Wildcats and Cardinals wrestling for a Sweet 16 bid if they both won their first-round games.

CBS Sports writer Jerry Palm unveiled his newest projections Monday morning. He placed Kentucky as the 4-seed in the East Region, heading to Providence, Rhode Island, to take on 13-seed Arkansas State.

James Fletcher III, who works for On3, published a bracketology projection for the network Sunday. He put the Wildcats in the South Region, landing the No. 3 seed. In his projections, UK will hit the road for Milwaukee, facing 14-seed Bryant (of the America East Conference) in Round 1.

A signature week is at hand for UK.

First up: a meeting with bitter border state rival Tennessee at Thompson Boling-Arena on Tuesday, giving both squads an opportunity to tally another Quad 1 victory. Then Kentucky returns home for a reunion game Saturday night again former coach John Calipari, now in his first season at Arkansas.

Tennessee (17-3, 4-3) poses a tough test. The Volunteers are unbeaten (11-0) at home in 2024-25, while the Wildcats have lost three of their four road outings so far. That’s to say nothing of UT’s quality in numerous areas. It’s No. 8 in both major polls (the USA TODAY Coaches and AP Top 25), No. 4 in the NET, No. 6 in KenPom. And the Volunteers own arguably the league’s best defense. They’re No. 1 in the conference in scoring defense (58.4 points per game; third nationally), field-goal percentage (36; second nationally) and 3-point percentage defense (25.4; that figure is tops in the country).

Then there’s Arkansas.

The Razorbacks (12-8, 1-6) are, to put it mildly, struggling.

The 1-6 mark in SEC play is tied for Calipari’s worst conference start as a college coach. (UMass also went 1-6 to begin Atlantic 10 competition in 1988-89 — the first season Calipari was a college head coach.) Though Arkansas finally notched its first conference win last week (a come-from-behind home triumph over Georgia), Calipari’s club also dealt with bad news: Freshman guard Boogie Fland will miss the rest of the season with a hand injury. Prior to the season-ending injury, Fland was averaging 15.1 points and a team-high 5.7 assists per game.

Despite all the adversity Arkansas has faced this season, Kentucky must anticipate Calipari’s new players will do everything they can to ensure their coach leaves with another victory at Rupp Arena.

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.