Matt Brocklebank was among the winners again at Chester last week and looks ahead to day one of York’s Dante Festival, with a couple of local runners fancied to go well.
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Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over165pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Wednesday May 15
1.5pts e.w. Chillingham in 2.15 York at 9/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Monsieur Kodi in 2.45 York at 20/1 (bet365)
1pt e.w. Cold Case in 3.15 York at 18/1 – NON RUNNER
Declarations were made on good to firm ground, but the subsequent steady drizzle at York is bound to have made some sort of impression and I’m anticipating at least a little ease in the going on day one of the Dante Festival.
Slightly easier conditions could result in a very big run from COLD CASE in the feature 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes, and he’s the one I want on side with plenty of firms offering extra places.
He doesn’t have the form to win a race like this just yet but he’s not far off the best of them on the pick of his efforts – at two and three in fairness – and is from a very fast family that includes a bunch of five-furlong sprinters who got better with age.
With that in mind, Cold Case looks the type who could get even quicker as he matures, and it does appear significant that Karl Burke brings him here first time up, given he won the Group 3 Commonwealth Cup Trial at Ascot on seasonal debut 12 months ago.
Cold Case recoiled somewhat after that comeback success but reportedly didn’t handle the very quick ground in the Sandy Lane at Haydock on his next run and then skipped Royal Ascot entirely on account of the going.
When he returned to action, he was effectively forced to take on older sprinters without the requisite experience, but still ran very well when third in the Hackwood at Newbury and fourth in the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville when last seen.
He’s been off a long time but that’s not such a bad thing as Burke can clearly get him ready at home and his prominent run-style is going to be well suited to the track. In fact, he won his maiden over course and distance in 2022 before finishing third in the Gimcrack that year, so the course evidently holds no fears whatsoever.
It’s a bit of a guess-up as to whether stall one will be a help or a hindrance, but there’s early pace right across, including Diligent Harry and Tiber Flow others who like to get on with it drawn in the low numbers, so I don’t see the selection getting marooned out on his own. He’s well worth backing each-way at 16/1 or bigger.
I got Chills, they’re multiplying
Earlier on, William Haggas’s Klondike stands out as the unexposed, future Group horse in the Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap and he’s had a breathing operation since trailing in last behind Arrest in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury towards the end of last summer, which may help him realise his potential.
He’s also got a very wide draw and top weight to contend with so I can look beyond him at the prices, and the same applies to Marhaba The Champ, who would prefer rattling-quick conditions to be seen at his best.
The one I’m really struggling to see out of the places is Ed Bethell’s CHILLINGHAM and he’s quite a strong each-way play for me. The son of Ulysses hasn’t won a race since his seasonal reappearance at Thirsk last spring, but he’s run some massive races in defeat including when fourth to Vauban in the Copper Horse Handicap at the Royal meeting and second to Prydwen (won two valuable handicaps subsequently) at Wolverhampton in November.
In his two starts so far this season, Chillingham has looked in need of the outing, racing keenly early on at Kempton and Ripon before not quite seeing it out as well as expected on both occasions.
That could all change here, though, with race-fitness now out of the question and Bethell has decided to fit cheekpieces for the first time in a bid to keep his mind on the job – at both ends of the race, no doubt. Bethell has a modest enough record when fitting the pieces (3-32) but I’m not letting that put me off.
An inside stall looks beneficial for Chillingham as you’d imagine Cal Rodriquez will look to be up with the pace from the outset and he might not be pestered much either, with Timeform’s pace forecast reading ‘weak’.
This horse handles all types of ground – his last two victories coming on soft, the one before on good to firm – and being eased a pound for the latest creditable run at Ripon looks a bit of a bonus ahead of one of the biggest meetings of the year for his local trainer.
Oui, Monsieur!
I’ve made a promise to myself not to overdo it in sprint handicaps at York this year (good luck, everyone!) as they’re about as tough as it comes, but they are also a decent chance to land on a nice price if the cards fall our way, and I’m punting win-only on MONSIEUR KODI in the hope the rain has really taken the sting out of it.
It’s a bit of a surprise that Richard Fahey hasn’t run him at York before as he’s shown all of his best form on proper speed tracks like Goodwood and Musselburgh, but he’s obviously fairly adaptable and his strike-rate is good for a sprinter (six wins from 21 turf starts).
He made his seasonal debut at Ripon last month at a time when a lot of the Fahey horses hadn’t fully come to hand, but plenty of them have stepped forward a lot since and this one could be next, especially as he’s another that’s been dropped a pound for what was a perfectly acceptable comeback effort (replay below).
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Oisin Orr reported the horse was denied a clear run there, which was far from ideal as he was racing over the minimum trip and had no time to fully recover when the space eventually opened up well inside the final furlong.
He came home nicely in the end without being placed under maximum pressure and hopefully it will stand him in good stead.
Yet another trained just up the road outside Malton, it’s fair to say I’m hoping the locals keep plenty of Wednesday’s major prizes on their own patch.
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