Willie Mullins in the UK this season

After a superb festive racing period along came the big freeze and while the cold weather has not called off too much high-quality action – it’s that time of year – jumps racing fans have had little to feed on since the calendars flipped over.

Which means this Saturday’s clash between Jonbon and Energumene in the Grade 1 BetMGM Clarence House Chase at Ascot is highly anticipated and it begins a period of pre-Cheltenham Festival good stuff (with Trials Day, the Dublin Racing Festival and Newbury’s Super Saturday on the horizon).

Jonbon is Jonbon and you can almost guarantee Nicky Henderson’s horse will turn up with a 165+ performance befitting an equine athlete who has won 16 of his 19 starts under Rules. The conundrum for punters is Willie Mullins’ Energumene and the level he will reach.

A prime Energumene would probably see to Jonbon (on four occasions he has beaten Jonbon’s best adjusted Timeform rating of 172+), but he’s 11-years-young and this is his second start back following a hind leg injury that saw him off the track for 593 days prior to his Hilly Way success at Cork on December 8, the day after Jonbon’s Tingle Creek win.

We’ll mention the merits of that Cork performance and what Energumene needs to do to beat Jonbon later on, but first what about the form of the Mullins yard as a whole in the UK this season?

It’s not great. Since the season proper started in October Mullins is one from 12 with his British raiders and the winner was a 1/3 shot at Sedgefield.

Five of the defeated were sent off at 2/1 or less and Ballyburn, Lossiemouth, Mystical Power, James Du Berlais, Uncle Phil, Horantzau D’Airy and Janidil ran below form, not really getting anywhere near their Timeform master ratings (see graph, below – note: Ballyburn looks like he’s overperformed in the chart, but his master hurdles rating is much higher than the performance rating he achieved at Kempton).

If Energumene is to turn the tide for Mullins on Saturday, he’s going to have to perform better than the Closutton crew have on their travels so far this campaign.

Mullins traditionally in the UK pre-New Year

The good news for Energumene fans is this is nothing new. Indeed, just last season Mullins had a very similar record with his UK runners from October to the end of the year, returning a record of one win from 11 with six of the defeated sent off 4/1 or shorter.

Between 2018 and 2020 Mullins had 12 runners in total in the UK between October and December and returned zero winners. Going further back, between 2003 and 2009 he had a total of 17 runners in the UK in the same timeframe and had no winners.

There was a purple patch. Between 2011 and 2017 Mullins had 14 winners from 73 winners in the UK between the months of October and December, a win strike-rate of 19%, when horses like Annie Power, Faugheen and Vautour regularly came to Britain in the early part of the campaign.

But since 2015 the policy has changed. In that year Mullins had 24 British runners between October and December, but it would take the next six years combined for him to have that many UK runners at that time of year again.

Since 2015, only in the last two years has Mullins reached double figures with his British runners between October and December, with 11 in 2023 and 12 this season.

As we know, Mullins prioritises the Cheltenham Festival over most things, especially when it comes to his British runners, and this is underlined when looking at his pre-New Year record in the UK.

Mullins in the UK in January

Usually, though, things hot up after the turn of the year as we get closer to the Festival. Indeed, drilling down solely to Mullins’ record in the UK in the month of January shows things pick up considerably in the first month of the year, his overall record reading 18 wins from 49 runners at a win strike-rate of 36.73%.

Three of those winners came at Doncaster, three at Sandown and three at Warwick. Five of them came at Cheltenham, with two New Year’s Day winners and three Trials Day winners (including a double last year), while another three victories came at Ascot.

Two of those were Un De Sceaux in the Clarence House (a race he also won when it was rerouted to Cheltenham Trials Day) and all of Mullins’ Ascot winners were odds-on favourites.

Energumene has been beaten twice in the UK in January; firstly when Shishkin got the better of him by a length in 2022 in a barnstorming edition of the Clarence House at Ascot and secondly when he fluffed his lines in the rescheduled 2023 renewal at Cheltenham (when he was third at 4/9 behind Editeur Du Gite, Mullins famously blaming the new white fences at the time).

Energumene and the task of taking on Jonbon

If history suggests the underperforming nature of the Mullins runners in the first half of the British season isn’t much to worry about, with a likely turning tide just around the corner, could Energumene make it third time lucky in the Clarence House?

The bookies are offering 5/2 at best with Jonbon generally 8/11, the price discrepancy reflecting the fact that Henderson’s horse has two years on his market rival, is in the form of his life and goes to Ascot with the yard in good form and with all their big guns firing.

It remains to be seen how much ability Energumene retains. On the one hand it looked like he probably had the subsequent King George winner, Banbridge, beat when Joseph O’Brien’s horse unseated his rider at the last at Cork, but on the other he returned his lowest timefigure since jumping an obstacle as Graeme North explains here and here.

Still, in the context of his 593-day absence, Energumene’s Cork return was more than satisfactory, while we have to acknowledge he’ll have to improve from that quite considerably to give Jonbon a race this weekend.

Knowing Mullins, he could well do. Energumene’s age is less of a concern than it would be with other horses considering his miles on the clock (just 16 career runs – three less than Jonbon), while this looks like it has been the target for some time considering his British-based owner Tony Bloom and the fact Mullins has several other horses for the upcoming Grade 1 Ladbrokes Dublin Chase over two miles at the DRF.

Energumene is expected to come on from Cork and tactically it’s fascinating with both himself and Jonbon well capable of doing things quite spectacularly from the front end.

Indeed, this Henderson hotpot v Energumene II contest looks the perfect race for a thawed out racing to shine the spotlight on. And whether Energumene is back close to his best or not, expect those Mullins UK runners to be firing on all cylinders soon enough. It’s just eight weeks to Cheltenham, after all.

More from Sporting Life

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.