The Texas Longhorns men’s basketball team is not yet assured of an NCAA Tournament at-large bid, but they’re not that far off.
With the Longhorns off until playing at South Carolina on Saturday afternoon, here is an updated look at their postseason resume, which received a boost thanks to beating Kentucky over the weekend.
BracketMatrix.com: 10.37 on 84 of 97 brackets, projected IN the NCAA Tournament
NET ranking (through Monday): 32, down one spot from the day before
Quadrant 1: 4-8 | Quadrant 2: 3-2 | Quadrant 3: 1-0 | Quadrant 4: 8-0
Strength of schedule (per WarrenNolan.com): 48| Non-conference strength of schedule: 352
Best win: A Jan. 25 win over Texas A&M (NET 11 through Monday) was a huge boost at the time, capping a week in which the Longhorns also beat Missouri, giving them a couple of Q1 wins when the resume was teetering after a rough start to SEC play.
Kentucky (NET 16) is a win that is likely to stand up through the rest of February and into March. That one doesn’t make up for three losses preceding it, but it definitely helps offset a bit of that stretch.
Worst loss: None, which is a byproduct of a mostly-awful non-conference schedule, complete with a non-conference strength of schedule of 352. Since the SEC schedule consists entirely of Q1 and Q2 opportunities, there will be no “bad losses” on the resume, but with Texas’ resume not on the firmest of footing, Q2 losses down the stretch will appear as black eyes.
Biggest opportunities: It’s debatable, but if Texas can win at SEC bottom-dweller South Carolina on Saturday, then win at Arkansas on Feb. 26, it should at least be at the doorstep of an at-large bid.
Can’t lose: Not losing at South Carolina is advisable. The Gamecocks’ NET of 91 is the worst of Texas’ five remaining regular-season opponents. The Longhorns don’t need to give the selection committee more resume items to nitpick, and losing at South Carolina would absolutely qualify as something to nitpick. From a metrics standpoint, the Gamecocks would be, far and away, Texas’ worst loss of the season.
Remaining schedule: Saturday at South Carolina (Q2), Feb. 26 at Arkansas (Q1), March 1 vs. Georgia (Q1), March 4 at Mississippi State (Q1), March 8 vs. Oklahoma (Q2)
LoneStarLive.com’s record projection and analysis: 19-12 overall, 8-10 SEC, projected to be in the NCAA Tournament when the SEC Tournament begins March 12 in Nashville.
We’re back to being bullish on this Texas team as an NCAA Tournament qualifier for three reasons.
In spite of whatever warts there have been, this team continues to play very hard for head coach Rodney Terry.
Furthermore, the schedule is about to get softer, and after the win over Kentucky, Terry expressed optimism that Chendall Weaver could return Saturday when the Longhorns play South Carolina in Columbia.
The junior guard has been shelved since early in a Jan. 7 loss to Auburn with a hip injury.
A healthy Weaver changes the athleticism and the backcourt options Terry has at his disposal. If Texas has Weaver, plus something resembling a healthy Arthur Kaluma (knee), going 3-2 over the final five regular-season games is reasonable.
At 19-12 without a horrid loss, Texas is likely on the correct side of the bubble once the SEC Tournament begins.
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