Article By

Joe Short

Last Updated: 11 Apr 2024

© PA

UK betting sites are confident Rishi Sunak will call the general election in October or November, yet remain sceptical that the prime minister will stay in power into next year.

Mr Sunak is stumbling towards an election with his Conservative party currently lagging in the polls.

Labour have a 21-point lead over the Tories and command the centre ground, while a resurgent Reform UK is pinching voters from the Conservative right.

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Some projections suggest Mr Sunak is on course to deliver the worst Conservative election result since Labour’s crushing victory in 1997.

The bookies reckon Sir Keir Starmer has a 90.9% chance of being prime minister once the public cast their votes. Meanwhile, they continue to back away from Mr Sunak. It means the incumbent faces a monumental challenge just to save face this year – and the timing of the election is crucial to that.

Rishi Sunak Odds

According to political betting markets, Mr Sunak is as wide as 8/1 to be prime minister after the next election. Those odds bely not only the Tories’ woeful poll ratings but also the very real danger that Mr Sunak could be ousted before the election.

The parliamentary party have rebelled against each of the last three Conservative PMs and there is growing speculation that Mr Sunak could face a leadership challenge if they suffer a catastrophic set of May local election results.

No wonder punters are fleeing him. Less than 15% of all bets on the ‘next prime minister’ market back Mr Sunak. Amazingly, more people reckon Boris Johnson could stroll into 10 Downing Street after the election.

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Predicting when Mr Sunak will leave office is another conundrum for the bookies. His “working assumption” is an autumn election, which almost certainly means October or November.

There’s little chance of the PM calling an election over the summer, while a September election would mean campaigning starting in the August school holidays. Voters would not like that.

November, meanwhile, would put the UK on an electoral collision course with the United States. That could draw the spotlight away from Mr Sunak when he needs it most.

Bookmakers reckon an October-December date is most likely at 1/7. More closely, an election in October comes in at 7/4 with Betfred, and November at 5/4.

Can Sunak Win The Election?

Much of the talk between now and the next UK general election will be around Mr Sunak’s suitability as leader of the Tory party. He has failed to improve their poll numbers since Liz Truss quit after a disastrously short reign in the autumn of 2022.

Since then Labour have seen their support grow, while Reform have snuck up on the right and are taking the Conservatives’ Brexit-supporting voters who stuck with Mr Johnson in 2019.

There aren’t many options left for Mr Sunak. The public want change and see it in both Labour and Reform, although for different reasons. 

There is an expectation that Labour will realign the UK with the EU to ease trade restrictions, while also turning the tap on public spending. 

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There is a hope among Brexiteers that Reform will deliver the required change to level up society and deal with illegal migration.

What are the expectations for Mr Sunak’s Tory party? Nothing much. Every time he shifts to the centre, he gets pilloried by the right. 

Every time he seeks to appease his right-wing rebels, he loses support to Labour.

The Conservatives are running headlong into electoral defeat at the May local elections and this could perhaps instigate a change. 

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That could be a change of direction, or even a change of leadership.

Right now it’s hard to see how the Conservatives remain in government. Either Mr Sunak changes or the party will act. 

But after 14 years of power there aren’t many avenues left for the PM to stand out from viable alternatives Labour and Reform.

No wonder most betting apps recently widened their odds of a Tory majority from 7/1 to 13/1.

Updated by

Joe Short

Last Updated:
 
11 Apr 2024