GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling holds ground after UK jobs data

Posted by author February 18, 2025 Jobs

GBP/USD trades near 1.2600 in the European session on Tuesday.
Labor market data from the UK supports Pound Sterling.
The pair’s technical picture suggests that the bullish bias remains intact.

GBP/USD fluctuates in a narrow channel slightly above 1.2600 after closing modestly higher on Monday. The pair’s technical outlook shows that the bullish bias remains unchanged in the near term.

British Pound PRICE This week

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Euro.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.28%	-0.11%	-0.30%	0.06%	-0.17%	0.17%	0.13%
EUR	-0.28%		-0.24%	-0.62%	-0.12%	-0.37%	-0.01%	-0.04%
GBP	0.11%	0.24%		-0.31%	0.12%	-0.07%	0.23%	0.21%
JPY	0.30%	0.62%	0.31%		0.36%	0.16%	0.69%	0.43%
CAD	-0.06%	0.12%	-0.12%	-0.36%		-0.22%	0.11%	0.09%
AUD	0.17%	0.37%	0.07%	-0.16%	0.22%		0.36%	0.34%
NZD	-0.17%	0.00%	-0.23%	-0.69%	-0.11%	-0.36%		-0.03%
CHF	-0.13%	0.04%	-0.21%	-0.43%	-0.09%	-0.34%	0.03%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

The UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported early Tuesday that the ILO Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.4% in the three months to December. This reading came in better than the market forecast of 4.5%. Additionally, the Employment Change rose by 107,000 in this period, up sharply from 35,000 reported for the previous month. Finally, the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Earnings Including Bonus, climbed to 6% from 5.6%. These figures seem to be helping Pound Sterling stay resilient against the US Dollar (USD).

In the meantime, while participating in a panel discussion titled “Preserving and enhancing open financial markets” at an event in Brussels on Tuesday, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged that they are in a period of heightened uncertainty and added that they are facing a weak growth environment in the UK.

The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases on Tuesday. In case risk flows dominate the action in the financial markets in the second half of the day, GBP/USD could regain its traction. At the time of press, US stock index futures were up between 0.1% and 0.3%.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart holds above 60 and GBP/USD continues to trade above the 20-period Simple Moving Average, reflecting sellers’ hesitancy.

In case GBP/USD continues to use 1.2600 (round level) as support, it could face the next resistance at 1.2650 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest downtrend) before 1.2700-1.2710 (round level, static level). On the downside, supports could be seen at 1.2530 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement), 1.2500 (round level, static level) and 1.2460-1.2450 (100-period Simple Moving Average, Fibonacci 50% retracement).

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.