Brussels is expected to push for a multi-year deal to avoid annual talks, which would infuriate European fishermen dependent on British waters. It will also want the best possible deal on catch quotas. 

The average volume of fish caught by EU fishermen in British waters was 760,000 tons per year between 2012 and 2016, the year of the Brexit referendum. 

In comparison, British fishermen caught 90,000 tons in EU waters, which are less populated because adult fish move to the UK’s colder and deeper waters as they grow. 

Fishing represented 0.03 per cent of the UKs total economic output in 2021.

The current deal expires on June 30, 2026, the same day as the UK-EU energy agreement, which preserved British access to European electricity and gas markets after Brexit. 

There will also be annual negotiations once the energy pact expires, meaning Britain risks having its easy access to EU supplies curtailed if it shuts EU boats out of the EEZ. 

Anand Menon, the director of the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, said: “It’s no coincidence that the energy and fisheries provisions of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement expire on the same day.

“Politically, fisheries really matter in the EU and they will be determined to secure continued access to UK waters and willing to use energy as a bargaining chip,” he said.

Previous deal ‘undeniably bad’ for UK

Mike Cohen, the chief executive of the National Federation of Fishermen’s Organisations, added: “We would hope and expect that a Labour Government will negotiate robustly in the national interest.

“That doesn’t mean simply conceding a continuation of what we agreed last time. That was undeniably a bad deal for British fishing, and we would hope to see a better deal this time round.”

Although UK fishermen recovered some quota, it was for less lucrative species, Mr Cohen said, and more quota for preferred species needed to be clawed back.

“While we still have a very inequitable distribution of fishing opportunities in British waters, between our own boats and foreign boats, we’re not going to see growth for coastal communities and the fishing industry,” he continued. 

Robert Oulds, the director of the Eurosceptic Bruges Group think tank, urged Sir Keir to “resist” pressure from Brussels.

“International law is on our side. However, we need to build scutters now and be prepared to defend our waters from intruders plundering our resources,” he said. 

Starmer less confrontational with EU

Sir Keir has brought a less confrontational tone with Brussels as he seeks to forge closer post-Brexit economic ties with the bloc. 

But in a blow to the Prime Minister’s hopes for a major revamp of the trade deal, Mr Sefcovic said the current agreement provided “a good balance of rights and obligations”.

The commissioner told MEPs this was because of the UK’s red lines over freedom of movement, the customs union or the single market. 

In documents submitted before a hearing to confirm that Mr Sefcovic would remain Brexit negotiator for the next five years, he boosted the Government’s hopes of a UK-EU security deal. 

“Europe and its neighbourhood are facing unprecedented geopolitical challenges and the case for deeper cooperation in this area is clear,” he said.

A Government spokesman said: “The UK Government will protect the interests of our fishers and fulfil our international commitments to protect the marine environment.”