Our expert takes an early look at two of the key races on QIPCO British Champions Day and has tips at 16/1 and 14/1 for Ascot next month.
Matt Brocklebank’s Value Bet is designed to generatelong-term profitby searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers throughSporting Life Plus,before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced145.70pts in profit (254pts staked, ROI of 57.36%).
Just less than a month to go until QIPCO British Champions Day and, with only Arc weekend likely to have any real bearing on the antepost markets for Ascot, now looks a good time for an interest.
Kinross – “the gift that keeps on giving” according to connections – appears to be thriving again after his recent Park Stakes win and will be out to regain his Prix de la Foret title after finishing second at Longchamp last October.
He has, however, been beaten in his last five starts over six furlongs and his 2022 victory in the British Champions Sprint Stakes remains this horse’s one career win at the distance from nine tries – I’m including the Maurice de Gheest over six and a half in that lot.
Having taken on the seven-year-old at Doncaster without much joy, I’ll do so again here as there are a couple of new kids on the sprint scene who I think can give him some major issues.
It might seem a bit strange to be referring to Montassib as a newbie, given he’s a six-year-old with 19 starts under his belt, but he’s definitely found a new lease of life back over six furlongs this year and his career record at the trip now reads 1511611.
The fifth came when flashing home from off the pace in last year’s Ayr Gold Cup and the sixth was in this season’s Duke Of York, when not having the raw speed of some of his rivals on good ground on that rapid track. He’s since landed the Chipchase before breaking through on his very first attempt at Group 1 level in the Betfair Sprint Cup.
William Haggas revealed post-race that he hadn’t been expecting such a performance (25/1) and that the Champions Sprint had been the long-term target all year. The trainer also said that “…the race will suit him but he’ll now be one of the favourites and things are different when you’re expected to win.”
Other than for some superstitious reason, I’m not quite sure how being among the market leaders changes anything from a trainer’s point of view, but it certainly changes things for punters and at the odds I’d rather side with Montassib’s stable companion UNEQUAL LOVE.
She was also making her debut in a Group 1 in the same Haydock contest earlier this month and, having watched it back several times (replay below), it’s hard not to be impressed with just how at home she looked in top-class company.
Unequal Love tanked through the race under Danny Tudhope and was unquestionably among the last still on the bridle. But whereas the scrubbed-along Montassib found himself in clear daylight towards the far side at a key point, Tudhope was made to delay his run a fraction longer than might have been ideal.
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The winner and runner-up Kind Of Blue had got a break on the field with half a furlong to travel, but Unequal Love picked up strongly late on and was closing all the way to the line to be beaten just a length.
Considering she won the Wokingham off a mark of 102 on ground (good to firm) widely considered to be far too fast for her in the summer, this filly is obviously right at home at the course and she could be sitting on another significant PB back there next month, especially if conditions are on the easy side.
Unequal Love is a soft-ground winner out of a Pivotal mare so it could be bottomless for all I’m concerned and the general 14/1 at this point rates excellent business.
Oppose gallant grey on value grounds
The other one to be backing long-range for Champions Day is TAMFANA in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.
Now, there’s no doubt Charyn is the correct short-priced favourite here and there aren’t too many circumstances I can see that should prevent him rounding out his brilliant four-year-old season in the best possible fashion.
I suppose the one thing you could argue is that considering his season started just eight days after Galopin Des Champs thundered home in the Gold Cup back in March, he’s been on the go a heck of a long time now and perhaps his performance levels will tail off after a frustrating second in the Prix du Moulin last time out.
Clearly the best horse on the day despite being beaten at Longchamp, Charyn did have quite a hard race trying to close down the enterprisingly-ridden winner (Tribalist), and you’ll be asking him to go to the well all over again if you’re willing to take 15/8 about Roger Varian’s grey winning the QEII.
The thing about this race is that I’m not too sure many of those quoted in behind the clear favourite are even going to turn up. The likes of Fallen Angel and Opera Singer have options over further and need to negotiate the Prix de l’Opera first (where at least one of them will be beaten), while you’d imagine the French pair of Facteur Cheval (second at Ascot last year) and Metropolitan will have possible engagements elsewhere beforehand too.
I can’t imagine Notable Speech running on deep ground over here in October and Haatem has been ruled out for the year, while quite where we stand now with Henry Longfellow is anyone’s guess. His dam Minding did win the QEII at the end of her three-year-old career but Henry obviously just hasn’t met the standards expected of him going into last winter.
In Tamfana we have an in-form filly whose form behind Sosie in the Grand Prix de Paris continues to work out well and who is now on course for the Sun Chariot at Newmarket, where she currently vies for favouritism alongside the tricky Inspiral.
I’d be on the youngster’s side in that particular tête-à-tête and if she wins at HQ then I can see her Ascot odds tumbling as trainer David Menuisier has already mentioned the race in dispatches.
I’ve got a huge amount of respect for Charyn who will most likely win, but can’t pass up the chance to get Tamfana on side before her next assignment after such a stylish – and hopefully confidence-boosting – victory in Group 3 company at Sandown late last month.
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