Canada must have its next federal election by October, but it’s likely a vote will be called before that.

Riding high in opinion polls with a double-digit lead, the official opposition Conservative Party have tried for months to trigger an election by bringing a series of no-confidence votes in the House of Commons.

The government needs the backing of a majority of the 338 members of parliament in a no-confidence vote. The Liberals are 17 seats shy of that, meaning they require support from members of Canada’s other parties.

So far, members of the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) have supplied Trudeau with enough votes to maintain control.

But on Monday, after Trudeau announced he would step aside, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he would vote to bring down the Liberal Party, no matter who the leader is.

“They do not deserve another chance,” he said.

Whoever is in charge of the Liberals by 24 March will not have much time to govern.

And after prorogation ends, the first vote will be a confidence motion. If the government loses that confidence motion, it is expected to resign or seek the dissolution of parliament, triggering a federal election.

Polls indicate that if a Canadian election were to be held today, the official opposition Conservative Party would win decisively.