Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.

Andrew heads to the Flat meetings at Epsom and the Curragh for his three stats-based selections on Sunday, September 29th…

CURRAGH 2.05

HELDTORANSOM (system – Churchill 2yos, second, third or fourth career start, turf only)

Juvenile progeny of the sire Churchill have a poor record on their racecourse debuts, but had we supported them on their second, third and fourth career starts, on turf only, we would have won 37 of our 243 bets (15.2% strike-rate) and made a profit of £89.62 to a £1 level stake at SP. HELDTORANSOM was very green when a modest third at Galway on his debut  earlier this month and can take a big step forward this afternoon.

EPSOM 4.05

WHISKEY PETE (system – Night of Thunder, good to soft or softer going, Flat)

Progeny of the sire Night Of Thunder have a fine record when racing on the Flat on good to softer or softer going (based on race times not the official going), landing 101 of their 541 starts (18.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £77.03 to a £1 level stake (expected winners = 84.34, A/E = 1.20). WHISKEY PETE, a soft ground winner at York last autumn, has drawn a blank in five starts since gelded but showed more when runner-up at Ascot last time and can go one better. He was a non-runner at Haydock yesterday (travel problems).

CURRAGH 5.30

LUKER’S TIPPLE (system – Starspangledbanner, racecourse debut, Flat turf)

Backing Starspangledbanner newcomers on the Flat (turf), regardless of age, would have found 39 winners from 303 bets (13%) for a profit of £30.61 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 29.05, A/E = 1.34). LUKER’S TIPPLE, a 95,000euros yearling, has attracted some market interest at big prices this morning and could be worth chancing to small stakes in this 1m2f maiden.

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Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:

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