“Iran understands clearly that the US is unwavering in its defence of our interests, our partners and our people. We have moved a significant amount of military assets to the region to underscore that principle,” a senior Biden administration official told the Washington Post.

Much to lose

In recent years, Iran has developed important diplomatic and trading relationships with China, Russia and Saudi Arabia in a bid to counter US and Israeli influence in the region and has much to lose if it calibrates its response poorly.

Some analysts believe that despite tactical military wins, including the recent assassinations, Israel is losing the strategic battle in the region and that Iran does not want to disrupt that trajectory.

This view is rejected by many in the Israeli defence establishment and the country’s political Right.

“They want our blood and their honour back,” said Assaf Orion, a retired Israeli brigadier general and a fellow of the The Washington Institute, of the likely response to the killings.

“By desert rules, if you can’t protect your guests, you’re good game.”