UK private sector growth slows to six-month low in ‘pre-election seize up’; markets rise on US rate cut optimism

UK private sector growth at six-month low – PMI

Expansion in the UK services sector slowed further in June with some evidence of a “pre-election seize up” feeding into a wider slowdown across the private sector to a six-month low, according to surveys.

More momentum was lost in June, with the upturn at its weakest since last November as tomorrow’s general election prompted some clients to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach before placing orders and commissioning new projects.

New business intakes rose at a historically subdued pace, while the pace of job creation also eased. Meanwhile, firms’ cost pressures continued to cool, but remained elevated. The rate of output price inflation accelerated slightly from May’s recent low.

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global UK services PMI business activity index remained in expansionary territory during June, posting 52.1. While this was the eighth consecutive monthly increase in output across the service sector, the headline index fell again, from 52.9 in May.

Activity across the UK’s private sector slowed to a six-month low. The composite output index, which pulls together the manufacturing and services surveys, remained in expansion territory at the end of the second quarter, but the pace of growth in business activity slowed for a second month running to its weakest in 2024 so far. At 52.3, down from 53.0 in May, the index was at a six-month low.

Joe Hayes, principal economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

We are seeing some evidence of a pre-general election seize up across the UK services economy, with growth in business activity slowing to a seven-month low in June as the prospect of a change in government led to the adoption of a “wait-and-see” approach by some, restraining sales.

Nevertheless, we’re on track for another quarter of GDP growth, according to composite PMI data for the three months to June, albeit one that will be less punchy than the first quarter’s 0.7%.

Turning to prices and firms’ costs, he said:

Prices still continue to show a high degree of stickiness across the UK service sector, although input cost inflation once again trended lower in June. The direction of travel here is encouraging for the Bank of England, but our survey’s gauge of prices charged actually rose on the month as some companies noted their pricing power was strong enough to raise their fees.

While costs, mostly from wages, have been the major driving force behind strong services inflation, the recovery of the UK economy from it’s late-2023 lull adds another dynamic for policymakers to consider should stronger economic conditions motivate more companies to raise their prices.

Key events

European shares rise after Powell remarks, French optimism

Following strong gains in Asian stock markets on optimism about US interest rate cuts, European equities are also pushing higher, led in part by France.

There is growing confidence that a majority for Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally can be avoided in the second election round on Sunday, with political wrangling under way.

France’s CAC has gained around 1%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 is 0.6% higher ahead of tomorrow’s general election, Germany’s Dax is up also up 0.6% and Italy’s FTSE MiB has jumped by 1.3%.

Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at the trading platform Scope Markets, said:

With President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist group and a left-wing alliance withdrawing candidates to minimise the number of three-way contests that might split the anti far-right vote, we have seen French [bond] yields head lower and stocks on the rise. With a hung parliament providing the basis for Macron to continue calling the shots, the market perception of a Le Pen victory comes down to the ability to achieve a majority or not.

Tomorrow’s UK election looks unlikely to create too many shockwaves given the sheer size of the majority expected for the Labour party. While Reform have been busy chipping away at the Conservative vote, recent scandals will have likely stifled support with two candidates defecting due to perceived racism within the party.

For traders, the prospect of a stable Labour majority appears to be a positive, with sterling one of the best performing currencies over the past week.

Looking ahead, the US jobs market remains in focus. Yesterday’s JOLTS job openings data showed an unexpected rise counteracted by a downside revision to the May reading. Mahony said:

With traders expecting a decline in Friday’s non-farm payrolls release, today’s ADP figure looks to similarly head lower in a sign of weakness in the employment picture.

The weakness seen for the dollar yesterday came off the back of comments from Powell, with the data dependent nature of the Fed being seen as a positive given the weakness expected in the jobs data this week. Nonetheless, traders will be concerned over the inflationary impact of the recent rise in crude oil, with yesterday’s rise pushing WTI through $84 for the first time since April.

UK private sector growth at six-month low – PMI

Joe Hayes, principal economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

We are seeing some evidence of a pre-general election seize up across the UK services economy, with growth in business activity slowing to a seven-month low in June as the prospect of a change in government led to the adoption of a “wait-and-see” approach by some, restraining sales.

Nevertheless, we’re on track for another quarter of GDP growth, according to composite PMI data for the three months to June, albeit one that will be less punchy than the first quarter’s 0.7%.

Turning to prices and firms’ costs, he said:

Prices still continue to show a high degree of stickiness across the UK service sector, although input cost inflation once again trended lower in June. The direction of travel here is encouraging for the Bank of England, but our survey’s gauge of prices charged actually rose on the month as some companies noted their pricing power was strong enough to raise their fees.

While costs, mostly from wages, have been the major driving force behind strong services inflation, the recovery of the UK economy from it’s late-2023 lull adds another dynamic for policymakers to consider should stronger economic conditions motivate more companies to raise their prices.

Keywords Studios to be taken private by Sweden’s EQT

Keywords Studios, an Irish video game services company that has worked on Fortnite and Call of Duty, has accepted a bid from the Swedish private equity firm EQT that values the business a £2.1bn.

Investors will receive £24.50 a share in cash, the companies said in a statement today. This is below a May offer of £25.50 a share, but Keywords’ board unanimously recommended the bid, which EQT described as its final offer.

The London-listed shares rose 2.8% to £23.82 today.

Keywords was founded in Dublin in 1998 by Giorgio Guastalla and Teresa Luppino and listed on the London Stock Exchange’s junior AIM market in 2013. It provides game development, audio and art services to clients including the US video game makers Epic Games and Activision Blizzard.

The company has expanded rapidly since going public by snapping up a string of support studios, and titles it has worked on include Fortnite, Call of Duty, Baldur’s Gate 3, Diablo IV, Starfield and Hogwarts Legacy. It operates across 26 countries.

EQT returned with a lower bid, after Keywords said that a number of games and development projects had been delayed or cancelled, with the industry struggling to recover from last year’s Hollywood strikes. The company said it expects growth to pick up in the second half of the year.

EQT was founded in Sweden more than 30 years ago with investment from the Wallenberg family, industrialists who are part-owners of international companies with Swedish roots, including AstraZeneca, ABB and Ericsson.

Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 teaser Photograph: Activision

Eurozone private sector growth at three-month low – PMI

In the eurozone, private sector growth eased to a three-month low, with activity in the service industries also at a three-month low, according to a closely-watched survey.

Demand for euro area goods and services declined for the first time since February.

The seasonally adjusted HCOB eurozone composite PMI output index, which pulls together the manufacturing and services readings, fell for the first time since October last year.

At 50.9 in June, the headline index posted above the 50 no-change mark for a fourth month in a row, signalling a sustained increase in euro area business activity. However, it was down from 52.2 in May, and signalled a rise in output that was the softest in three months.

Almost all of the eurozone nations with composite PMI data available recorded growth during June, but at a weaker rate than previously.

Spain was again the fastest-growing euro area economy, with output rising sharply. Moderate upturns were recorded in Germany and Ireland, while Italian growth eased to a four-month low. France was the outlier, as private sector business activity weakened for a second month running.

France’s service sector was the odd one out, where the sharpest fall in new orders since January weighed on output. Some firms linked the softening to the uncertainty surrounding the election called by president Emmanuel Macron, with the second round on 7 July. Business confidence also weakened, as did jobs growth.

Output prices – those charged by firms – rose slightly and at the slowest rate in more than three years.

The HCOB France services PMI business activity index posted below the 50 no change mark for the second month running. However, there was an improvement, with the index rising from 49.3 to 49.6.

In Italy, the service sector also expanded but slightly lost momentum in June. Service providers had the highest confidence in their outlook since early 2022. Overall new business picked up again, but at the softest pace for five months.

The headline index from the report, the HCOB Italy services PMI business activity Index fell to 53.7 in June, but remained above the 50 no change mark. That compared to 54.2 in May, and marked a sixth consecutive month that an increase in business activity has been recorded.

Germany also lost some momentum, with its services business activity index easing to 53.1 in June from 54.2 in May, marking a three-month low.

The upturns in new business and employment also slowed, while firms’ growth expectations for the coming year were at a five-month low.

The final readings for the closely watched PMI surveys are out.

In Spain, the private sector continued to expand at an above average pace in June, and firms hired more staff. Confidence in the future remained positive as firms looked to more stable economic and political environments in the months ahead.

The headline index from the HCOB Spain services PMI business activity index was at 56.8 in June versus May’s 13-month peak of 56.9. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.

Thursday’s general election looks likely to be a historic pivot: one of those long-remembered moments when the established order at Westminster is swept away by what Jim Callaghan, the victim of one such shift in 1979, called a “sea change in politics”.

Yet as Guardian reporters fanned out across the UK during the campaign to spend time talking to voters and non-voters in 15 varied constituencies for the Path to power series, they found precious little hope that things will be different come 5 July.

Every constituency had its own particular concerns that bubbled up repeatedly in conversation: in Waveney Valley it was unwanted pylons, in Burnley it was the Gaza conflict and in Clacton it was immigration.

But several common threads run through much of the reporting, forming a dark narrative about the state of Britain and its people as Labour prepares to take power.

Everywhere reporters went, the infrastructure that makes up everyday life, from GP surgeries to libraries to roads, has been eroded by more than a decade of underinvestment.

In Chingford and Woodford Green, in north-east London, the parlous state of the pavements came up; people in North Cornwall are crying out for a bypass.

The NHS is raised again and again, in a litany of terrible stories, leavened with British stoicism. “I’m not knocking the NHS but it’s frustrating,” was how 26-year-old Katie Hayton, in Whitby, described her situation while awaiting a cornea transplant, for which she will have to travel 50 miles to York.

Money pouring into UK assets ahead of Labour victory, investors say

At the same time, City investors said a landslide victory for Keir Starmer in the general election tomorrow could hand Britain a stability premium in global markets, boosting the pound, shares and investment in the UK at a time of mounting political turmoil elsewhere.

In sharp contrast with Conservative party warnings over the dangers of a large Labour majority, analysts in the City of London said the prospect of a resounding mandate for Starmer’s party could secure Britain’s “safe haven” status among investors in an increasingly volatile world.

After failing to close the gap in opinion polls during the election campaign, Rishi Sunak made a last-ditch warning that a Starmer “supermajority” would “bankrupt people in every generation”.

However, City analysts said a Labour landslide could pave the way for global investment in Britain after years of political and economic uncertainty since the 2016 Brexit referendum under the Tories, which had clouded the prospects for international investors.

Highlighting mounting political instability on both sides of the Atlantic and the meltdown in financial markets triggered by Liz Truss’s mini-budget – when investors spoke of a “moron premium” for Britain – City experts said a clear outcome on Thursday could return Britain to a steadier footing.

Nuwan Goonetilleke, the head of shareholder assets at Phoenix Group, which manages more than £280bn in investments, said money was already pouring into London-listed assets in anticipation of a Labour victory.

The UK is really being seen not just as a safe haven, but the safest of havens – especially in Europe.

Wealthy sell UK assets amid fears of higher capital gains tax – report

Several rich individuals in the UK are reportedly selling shares, property and other assets days before an expected landslide for the Labour party, which they fear would raise capital gains tax.

Financial planners representing wealthy people told the Financial Times that some clients, from corporate chief executives to entrepreneurs, were offloading investments.

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves has said her party has no plans to raise CGT, but she has refused to rule out increasing the levy during a Labour government’s full term.

Several wealth managers said “lots of clients” had been in contact with questions about a possible CGT increase. For higher or additional-rate taxpayers, the tax is levied at 20% on gains made from selling assets, while property is taxed at up to 24%.

GSK buys full rights to flu and Covid jabs from CureVac

GSK has bought the full rights to develop, make and sell mRNA vaccines for flu and Covid-19 from Germany’s CureVac.

The UK’s second-biggest drugmaker is paying €400m upfront and up to an additional €1.05bn to the biotech firm, which was founded in Tübingen in southwest Germany in 2000. The two companies have restructured their existing collaboration into a new licensing agreement.

Since 2020, GSK and CureVac have worked together to develop mRNA vaccines for infectious diseases. They currently have vaccine candidates for seasonal influenza and Covid-19 in intermediate clinical trials (phase II) and avian influenza in phase I clinical development. The jabs are based on CureVac’s mRNA technology.

Tony Wood, GSK’s chief scientific officer, said:

We are excited about our flu/Covid-19 programmes and the opportunity to develop best-in-class mRNA vaccines to change the standard of care. With this new agreement, we will apply GSK’s capabilities, partnerships and intellectual property to CureVac’s technology, to deliver these promising vaccines at pace.

Alexander Zehnder, CureVac’s chief executive, said:

The collaboration with GSK has been instrumental in developing promising, late clinical-stage vaccine candidates, leveraging our proprietary mRNA platform. This new licensing agreement puts us in a strong financial position and enables us to focus on efforts in building a strong R&D pipeline.

Employee Philipp Hoffmann, of German biopharmaceutical company CureVac, demonstrates research workflow on a Covid vaccine at a laboratory in Tübingen. Photograph: Andreas Gebert/Reuters

Hawksmoor restaurant chain put up for sale

Jack Simpson

The UK restaurant chain Hawksmoor has been put up for sale in a deal that could value the restaurant at about £100m.

The popular chain of steak restaurants has hired investment bank Stephens to start looking for potential suitors for the business, which is currently looking to expand its overseas operation.

Hawksmoor, which was founded in 2006 by Will Beckett and Huw Gott in London, has now expanded to 13 locations, including three outside of the UK. Last week it opened its first restaurant in Chicago, while also owning restaurants in Dublin and New York.

Graphite Capital has owned a 51% stake in the chain since 2013 after it paid £35m to support a management buy out by both founders.

The investment process, which was first reported by the Financial Times, will see Beckett, who is the current chief executive, and Gott, who owns a minority stake, retain their stake after a deal is concluded.

Hawksmoor Restaurant, Canary Wharf, London Photograph: Karen Robinson/The Observer

Introduction: Markets rise on US rate cut optimism; Tesla shares jump 10% after better-than-expected car sales

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Yesterday’s comments from US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell have spread optimism over interest rate cuts across markets. Japan’s Nikkei, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Singapore and Taiwanese markets all rose more than 1%.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both closed at record highs.

Speaking at a European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portgual, Powell noted the latest inflation readings from April and May “do suggest that we are getting back on a disinflationary path.”

However, he added: “We want to be more confident” before we decide on reducing policy. “We just want to understand that the levels that we’re seeing are a true reading on what is actually happening with underlying inflation.”

Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting are due later today and could offer clues on the central bank’s thinking on rates.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank said:

Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell said that the Fed has made ‘quite a bit of progress’ on inflation and investors didn’t need more to jump back on the back of a bull. The S&P 500 closed at a record high again, while Nasdaq 100 hit the 20,000 mark for the first time in history.

Shares in Tesla jumped 10.2% after the US electric carmaker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter. It said price cuts and incentives helped stimulate demand.

The Agenda