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Value Bet tips: Saturday May 25

1pt win Cerulean Bay in 1.15 Haydock at 10/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt win Monfrid in 1.30 Goodwood at 10/1 (General)

2pts win Rogue Lightning in 1.50 Haydock at 5/1 (BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt win Thunderbear in 2.45 York at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Lighting to light up Haydock

Rosallion confirmed himself to be of Classic calibre with a fantastic run when second in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and, on paper at least, shouldn’t have too much trouble going one better in the Irish version at the Curragh on Saturday.

With River Tiber untried beyond six furlongs, it could be that Aidan O’Brien’s second-choice Unquestionable – only a length behind Rosallion in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere before winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf when last seen – gives him most to think about, but I won’t be taking on the favourite, who has evidently trained on and looks a top-drawer colt for Richard Hannon.

The domestic action centres around Haydock where watering was deemed necessary earlier in the week yet final declarations were made on ground officially described as soft, heavy in places. The forecast is largely decent now, although it’s not going to dry out much before racing.

In the Betfred Temple Stakes, conditions are likely to narrow the class gap between horses like Nunthorpe winner Live In The Dream and the mud-loving Vadream, but I reckon ROGUE LIGHTNING has the potential to blow them away and I’ll chance him coping with the ground on his first start in the Wathnan Racing silks.

Rogue Lightning was a bit of a slow burner after winning his novice first time up a couple of years ago, but having him gelded moved the dial last summer and he rocketed through the ranks, from landing a Doncaster handicap off 94 to looking unlucky not to win the Abbaye.

Beaten just a length and a quarter in fifth at Longchamp, he was twice denied a clear run and would surely have given winner Highfield Princess a proper fright with anything like a clean shot at it. He went for a million guineas on the back of that effort which is neither here nor there as far as punters should be concerned this weekend, but he’s clearly not going be a gallop short for his seasonal comeback and trainer Tom Clover is in excellent form.

Live In The Dream looks a little less likely to be ‘screws tight’ for his return, with the Nunthorpe top of his agenda again later in the summer, while Asfoora isn’t an A-lister in Australia by any means and racing on tough ground at Haydock will be a bit of a culture shock.

Rogue Lightning handles some ease underfoot, and I wouldn’t be in a rush to lay the horse at anything north of 3/1 so have to back him accordingly.

Bay of plenty of O’Meara

Seeing the Simon and Ed Crisford-trained Chesspiece almost stopping to a walk in the closing stages at Sandown on Thursday evening did set a few alarm bells ringing in regards to Vandeek in the Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Sandy Lane Stakes, and it’s true that a few of the stable’s seemingly fancied runners have disappointed of late.

They are still operating at a 17% strike-rate (5-29) for the month of May, though, so I can’t take such a dim view and will resist the temptation to take on the unbeaten Vandeek with Guineas sixth Inisherin or Andrew Balding’s Purosangue, the latter looking likely to strip fitter for his Ascot return when caught on a wing without any cover.

The other one I do want to be with at Haydock is CERULEAN BAY in the Betfred Silver Bowl Handicap.

He was asked a big question in the Solario Stakes on his third run last year, having won his first two starts in Scotland, and understandably failed to make much of an impression. He was gelded over the winter and just looks to have been brought along steadily this season with a valuable prize like this in mind.

First up at Beverley, he raced a little keenly before looking in need of the outing close home, and last time over this course and distance he was third to the front-running Silent Move, who dictated a steady pace.

Trapped away on the inside that day, Danny Tudhope had to sit and suffer for several strides as the pace quickened passing the two-furlong pole but once in the clear top-weight Cerulean Bay rattled home to be beaten just over a length.

He’s gone up a couple of pounds and is raised in class this weekend, but he was a major eyecatcher in the circumstances and the son of New Bay looks likely to appreciate the testing conditions. Richard Kingscote takes over from Danny Tudhope in the saddle and his Haydock record needs little introduction.

Hopes high with Haggas improver

Goodwood’s seven-furlong William Hill Harroways Handicap is just as strong as the Silver Bowl and could produce the odd future Group-race performer. Balmacara comes here over the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown in midweek and remains a very exciting horse for Eve Johnson Houghton, but he could have fared a lot better with the draw and will need all the luck in the world from out in 13.

Fast-finishing Chester second Al Shabab Storm is a dead obvious one but he’s up 4lb for his troubles and I’ll oppose that pair with Catterick novice scorer MONFRID, who will break from stall seven.

He’d shown some potential in two all-weather runs towards the end of last year but something evidently clicked with a tongue-tie fitted on his seasonal return, getting on top with around a furlong to travel and just being kept up to his work.

The fact he was getting 7lb from the penalised runner-up means the assessor hasn’t been able to go over the top but he looked to do it a shade cosily and a mark of 82 does look more than fair on the balance of this well-bred colt’s profile.

Haggas had a 29% hit-rate (5-17) with three-year-olds at Goodwood last year and must have had loads of potential qualifiers for this event. He’ll do for me at 8/1 or bigger.

Bear on the prowl from Ireland

At York, it’s hard to have a very strong view in the William Hill Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes as half the field haven’t been seen for a while and then there’s Nicky Henderson’s high-class hurdler Marie’s Rock, who muddies the waters even further.

I’ll give it a miss but will rely on class and early speed in the William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Handicap – rarely a bad policy when it comes to the five-furlong sprints at this track.

THUNDERBEAR ticks both boxes and is an interesting runner on his return to Britain having beaten the smart mare Nymphadora when winning a Group 3 over the minimum trip at Newbury last September.

He’s failed to repeat that level of form in four subsequent starts but did show a lot more promise when fifth at Bath last month and that race has worked out quite well, third Baldomero and sixth Desperate Hero winning valuable handicaps since.

In spite of that, Thunderbear gets into this off a 3lb lower mark, his lowest rating since last spring, and he’s obviously very comfortable on all types of ground (good to soft at York at time of writing).

He won in a first-time visor at Fairyhouse a couple of years ago so it’s encouraging to see that headgear back in place here, replacing cheekpieces, and he’s worth a small win-only interest in a typically open contest.

Published at 1600 BST on 24/05/24

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