US election poll tracker: Trump has edge on Biden

Posted by Admin April 23, 2024 World

Donald Trump maintains a narrow lead in the polls for the US election.

The former president leads the incumbent in several swing states, which could be critical to securing the White House in November.

Concerns about Joe Biden’s age and the cost of living could work in Mr Trump’s favour as he bids to become the first person to return to the White House after an absence since the 19th century.

But Mr Trump must first win over the moderate Republicans who voted against him in the primaries.

Immigration has emerged as one of the most important election issues as the US faces a growing crisis with record arrivals at the border with Mexico.

Mr Biden is coming under fire from Republicans for overseeing a record rise in illegal migration, while Mr Trump has ramped up his attacks.

The Republican has claimed Mr Biden’s handling of the border had resulted in a “bloodbath” and personally blamed him for the death of Laken Riley, an Augusta University student allegedly killed by an illegal migrant.

In an increasingly polarised United States, the fate of democracy itself has also emerged as one of the key political issues.

Those on the Left feared the threat came from the prospect of the re-election of an authoritarian Mr Trump. Republicans argued that the Biden administration was weaponising the judicial system to convict the former president.

Inflation remains a key issue too, with the cost of living growing despite the economy performing strongly. This is likely to damage Mr Biden in the long run.

Meanwhile, the Democrats are having success attacking Mr Trump over abortion, after the former president packed the Supreme Court, which overturned Roe v Wade.

Mr Trump blamed the issue on a disappointing performance by the Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections, in which several candidates he had personally endorsed failed to make inroads.

Although he takes credit for the “miracle” of undoing Roe v Wade, he also acknowledges that the issue could hurt Republicans at the ballot box and steered clear of imposing a federal limit. Instead, he said he will leave it to the states to make the decision.

Mr Biden has said he will guarantee federal abortion rights if he wins in November, while his campaign has accused Mr Trump of stripping away reproductive rights.

The latest surveys showed that the majority of voters disapprove of Joe Biden.

Polls also show that about two-thirds of Americans think the president, who celebrated his 81st birthday on Nov 20, is too old to continue in the White House beyond next year.

Analysts have suggested the president is losing the support of core Democrat voters, including young liberals, black voters and Muslims concerned about Gaza.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that nearly two-thirds of respondents thought that America was on the wrong track.

However, a Suffolk University/USA Today poll found that the president was gaining ground on the economy.

In October, 21 per cent of voters said the economy was recovering and this figure had climbed to 33 per cent by March.

Voters have not been happy with his handling of the Gaza crisis according to a New York Times/Siena poll.

It found that 46 per cent of voters trusted Mr Trump to handle the crisis and only 38 per cent had confidence in Mr Biden.

Mr Trump’s poll ratings appear to be unaffected by four criminal indictments against him, for alleged election interference, mishandling of classified documents and claims he paid hush money to a porn star.

In April, he became the first US President to stand criminal trial, appearing in Manhattan Criminal Court over “hush money” allegations.

He has frequently complained that his time in court – four days a week while it is in session – means he cannot campaign in vital swing states. However, he has used the media spotlight to claim he is the victim of a “witch hunt” by Joe Biden and the Department of Justice.

Mr Trump has also taken to the stand to testify in a $250m civil fraud trial in New York, which threatens to strip him of his business empire in the city, including the iconic Trump Tower.

His appearance makes him the first former president in 100 years to give evidence as a defendant in court.

What the primaries taught us

Mr Biden and Mr Trump romped to victory in the primaries, sweeping almost all states with limited opposition.

Mr Trump faced the sternest test against Nikki Haley, who lasted until Super Tuesday before dropping out.

Major questions remain over whether her more moderate supporters will be willing to back Mr Trump, who ended up underperforming according to a comparison of polls and results.

Exit polls from Super Tuesday also showed an alarming number of Republican voters saying Mr Trump will not be fit to serve if convicted.

Mr Biden, meanwhile, is facing a backlash over support for Israel among more Left-wing, young and Arab voters, all of whom have traditionally swung Democrat.

Swing states

Some states are blue through-and-through, with a history of siding with the Democratic candidate in presidential elections – think California and Washington on the Pacific coast, or Massachusetts and New York by the Atlantic. Others are strongholds of the GOP: the Great Plains’ Wyoming, the Rust Belt’s West Virginia and the Deep South’s like Alabama all among them.

The minds of voters in these places are assumed made up regardless of who appears on the ballot. They rarely determine the outcome of an election, and candidates rarely lavish them with their time or campaign resources as a result. Instead, it all hinges on swing states.

Also known as battleground states, these are the ones that could “swing” either way. The moniker tends to stick where the margin of victory has historically been the slightest, and where voters have realigned between consecutive elections. This year, all eyes are on Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Until 2020, Georgians had backed the Republican candidate in every cycle since 1996. Last time around, Mr Biden squeaked to victory by 49.5 per cent to 49.3 per cent – the narrowest margin in the country.

The pundits at FiveThirtyEight pinned this on Atlanta. The state capital’s wider metropolitan area was becoming ever more liberal – or so it was thought. The latest polling shows the contest there is anything but settled.

Florida’s swelling population means it now wields the third-most electoral college votes in the country, behind only Texas and California. Large groups of retirees and Cuban immigrants also make it a diverse and politically unpredictable place.

This reputation was cemented in dramatic fashion in the 2000, where a month-long recount process saw George W. Bush take the state, and the presidency, by just 537 votes. Barack Obama may have turned the tables in 2008 and 2012, but Florida was to be the only battleground state where Mr Trump won in both 2016 and 2020 and expanded his margin.

For now, polling suggests he’s likely to carry rival Ron DeSantis’s stomping ground for a third time should he be pitted against Mr Biden.

Michigan used to be the beating heart of the American auto industry. Once powered by Motor City/Detroit, since the 1970s it has been held back by its economic woes and high unemployment. With a population in decline, its electoral college sway is ebbing, but for now remains consequential.

The state voted for Mr Obama by a margin of 9.5 per cent in 2012, swung for Mr Trump by 0.2 per cent in 2016, then back to blue for Mr Biden by 2.8 per cent in 2020. Recent polls have the two presumptive presidential candidates in 2024 exchanging the lead often.

Arizona’s electoral college votes have gone to the Democrats just twice in presidential elections since 1952 – most recently for Mr Biden in 2020, albeit by a margin of only 0.3 per cent. The burgeoning Latino community, which has grown from a quarter to a third of the population since 2000, is thought to be behind the state’s emergence as one to watch.

The Trump campaign filed several post-election lawsuits challenging the 2020 result, all of which were either dropped or dismissed. Only time will tell whether this has galvanised his supporters enough to turn the state red come November 8th – assuming he becomes the Republican nominee – but for now he maintains a narrow lead in state polls.

As in Michigan, in 2016 Mr Trump was able to mobilise the vote of the disaffected in the northern industrial state of Pennsylvania on his behalf. Flipping it by just 0.7 per cent, it had voted Democrat in the 6 previous elections. In 2020, however, Mr Biden took it back by 1.2 per cent.

Pennsylvania is shaping up to be the tightest showdown of all battleground states, with the most recent polls putting the candidates neck-and-neck.

While the Democrats have enjoyed far more success in North Carolina’s gubernatorial races, the Republicans have been able to count on the state’s backing of their candidate in 12 out of the last 14 presidential races.

Mr Trump’s 3.6 per cent margin in 2016, however, was squeezed to just 1.3 per cent by Mr Biden in 2020. With the pair polling closer than ever in the run-up to election day this year, the Democrats smell opportunity.