The South African government has reportedly expressed outrage about a travel warning issued by Britain to its citizens that “terrorists are very likely to carry out attacks in South Africa”.

But the UK says the warning has been on its website since 2022. It is not clear why a furore has erupted now.  

The advisory on the website of the British High Commission in Pretoria adds that: “The main threat is from individuals who may have been inspired by terrorist groups, including Daesh, and who may carry out ‘lone actor’ attacks.

“Attacks could be indiscriminate and could target public spaces and places visited by foreigners, such as: tourist sites; shopping centres; high-profile events; crowded places.”

Zane Dangor, the Director-General of the Department of International Relations and Cooperation (Dirco), has been quoted by News24 as complaining about the terror warning, which the report said was updated on 4 January. 

“Where does this credible threat come from?” he is reported as saying.

“They still have not given us a proper explanation. There is no evidence why we would be a target for a terror attack, and we are saying if you have credible information, give it to us, which they have not done.”

Daily Maverick asked Dangor and Dirco to confirm and comment, but neither responded. 

The UK’s current travel advisory, which covers a wide range of issues, from crime to power cuts, was updated on 4 January, but according to sources the most recent update on terrorist groups was added in December 2023.

A UK source said: “There is no new update or alert. With the exception of language on tensions in the Middle East added in December last year, we have had similar language on terrorism in our travel advice for well over a year.

“Our travel advice is about providing the best advice we can to British nationals so they can visit South Africa with confidence — it is not about geopolitics.”

The British High Commission told Daily Maverick: “The [Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office] constantly reviews the threat to British nationals from international terrorism.”

The UK’s terror alert was first posted in 2022 after the US embassy in October that year posted a similar warning to its citizens that there could be a terror attack in Sandton. Those warnings also provoked a strong negative response from Pretoria. SowetanLive reported on the UK’s warning at the time. 

The new language in the UK advisory, on tensions in the Middle East, states that: “The current conflict in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories has led to heightened tensions around the world.

“Terrorist groups, such as [al-Qaeda] and Daesh, have called on their supporters to carry out terrorist attacks in response to the conflict. The conflict could also motivate individuals to carry out attacks. 

“Terrorist attacks could target Jewish or Muslim communities, or the interests of Israel and its allies. Attacks could also be indiscriminate and occur without warning.”

It is understood this updated warning was posted widely on British embassy websites around the world and did not refer specifically to South Africa. 

Attack unlikely

Jasmine Opperman, an expert on extremism in Africa, said the first thing to understand about this controversy was that the UK and other countries had a legal obligation to warn their citizens of any danger to cover themselves from any comeback if there should be an attack. 

She added that, given the threat of terror attacks in Europe, including lone wolf attacks, “One can understand the concerns by Western governments.”

She said she did not believe the warning was an attempt by the UK to discredit South Africa because of differences over foreign policy positions on the Russia-Ukraine war or the Israel-Hamas war, as some commentators have suggested. 

She said that extremism was not unfamiliar to South Africa, “What is unfamiliar is an organised attack like we saw in Russia,” she added, referring to the terror attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow last month in which more than 133 people died. The Isis affiliate Isis-K, based in central Asia, claimed responsibility. 

Opperman said she did not think that such a major attack was likely or that South Africa’s recent foreign policy positions and actions had increased the chances of such an attack. 

The Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama’a group, in northern Mozambique, which is affiliated to the Islamic State, had warned that it would retaliate in South Africa if Pretoria deployed troops to fight it — which SA did in July 2021, as part of a SADC regional force. 

Opperman noted that concerns had also been raised that there could be retaliation against South Africa for deploying troops last December to fight armed rebel groups in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

One of the armed groups in the DRC, the Allied Democratic Forces, is also affiliated with Isis. But Opperman noted that there had been no attack by the Islamic State after these deployments and she did not think there was an increased probability of a major organised attack. 

She said red flags remained about the danger of South Africans being recruited by extremist groups and of South Africa providing a safe haven for them. There was always the danger of a lone wolf attack, though predicting and preventing such an attack would be extremely difficult.  

Opperman added that the threat of a right-wing attack should not be overlooked, especially before the elections. 

Similar warning in Kenya

Willem Els, a security expert at the Institute for Security Studies, agreed that the UK terror alert was directed only at warning its own citizens and not at Pretoria. 

He said he believed the warning was escalated after the terror attack in Moscow last month when Isis-K became very active on its media platforms, threatening attacks on big gatherings like soccer matches and trying to incite lone wolf attacks. 

He said that on 29 March, the UK had posted a similar travel alert on the website of its High Commission in Kenya. 

This travel advisory is not dated but, like the South African one, it warns that “terrorists are very likely to try to carry out attacks in Kenya”.

But it goes further than the SA warning, saying: “Be aware there is a heightened threat of terrorism across Kenya. Attacks could target Westerners, including British nationals. These could occur at any time including religious events, public holidays or celebrations. Attacks are indiscriminate and could occur in places frequented by foreigners, including tourists, such as, but not limited to: hotels; bars; restaurants; nightclubs; sporting events; supermarkets; shopping centres; beaches; safari parks; commercial and government buildings; places of worship.”

Unlike South Africa, Kenya is not perceived as a country that may have antagonised the UK or the West with its stance on the Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Hamas wars. DM