Just like that, Mark Pope‘s debut season in Lexington is coming to a close as the Kentucky Wildcats are set to end the year at Missouri before the SEC Tournament begins next week. The Tigers are led by Dennis Gates, putting forth one of the league’s best coaching performances in 2024-25 after going winless in the league just a year ago.
Can UK wrap up the regular season with one final road victory? KSR has everything you need to know about the matchup in Columbia.
You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard
Kentucky: KenPom 16
Missouri: KenPom 15
Kentucky leads the all-time series 15-3, although life in Columbia has not been easy for the Wildcats, sitting at just 4-3 on the road. UK won the head-to-head matchup in Lexington, a 90-77 blowout that saw Rob Dillingham led the way with 23 points while Tre Mitchell added 20.
Dennis Gates, in his third season at Mizzou, is 1-1 against the Wildcats overall while Mark Pope is set to coach against the Tigers for the very first time. He did not take on Missouri as a player, either, with the program joining the SEC in 2012.
Spread: Missouri –3.5
Total: 170.5
KenPom and Bart Torvik both project wins for Missouri, the former calling an 86-83 victory and the latter rolling with an anticipated score of 88-83. ESPN’s BPI likes the Tigers by 0.4 points while giving the home team a 51.7 percent chance to pull off the win.
#1 – Lamont Butler
6-2 – 208 – GUARD – GRAD SENIOR
12.0 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.0 RPG
#00 – Otega Oweh
6-4 – 215 – GUARD – JUNIOR
16.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.5 SPG
#4 – Koby Brea
6-7 – 215 – GUARD – GRADUATE STUDENT
11.0 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.2 APG
#7 – Andrew Carr
6-11 – 235 – FORWARD – GRADUATE STUDENT
10.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.7 APG
#22 – Amari Williams
7-0 – 262 – CENTER – GRADUATE STUDENT
10.9 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 3.1 APG
#0 – Anthony Robinson II
6-3 – 180 – GUARD – SOPHOMORE
9.4 PPG, 3.5 APG, 2.1 SPG
#12 – Tony Perkins
6-4 – 200 – GUARD – SENIOR
8.1 PPG, 2.5 APG, 2.4 RPG
#2 – Tamar Bates
6-5 – 195 – GUARD – SENIOR
13.1 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.2 APG
#11 – Trent Pierce
6-10 – 220 – FORWARD – SOPHOMORE
7.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.0 APG
#25 – Mark Mitchell
6-9 – 230 – FORWARD – JUNIOR
14.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.0 APG
(via Kentucky’s game notes)
Interesting stats from UK’s game notes:
LOCKING UP A NO. 3 SEED?
The latest projections have Kentucky going back and forth between No. 3 and No. 4 seed lines in the NCAA Tournament, this game potentially deciding the Wildcats’ fate on Selection Sunday. Win, and you likely lock up a No. 3 regardless of what happens in the SEC Tournament as you secure a tenth Quad 1 victory, a mark just Auburn (15) and Michigan State (11) have hit on the year. This would also give Pope’s group an eighth win against top-15 competition, which would tie the all-time record in college basketball.
Lose, and you may be able to save your standing in Nashville — although we know how little the selection committee values conference tournaments for at-large bids — but it’s no longer guaranteed. Win, then make a run next week? There may actually be a path to a No. 2 seed, depending on the rest of the college basketball landscape. It starts in Columbia.
SEC TOURNAMENT IMPLICATIONS
Entering the final game of the regular season, Kentucky can earn anywhere from the No. 5 seed in the SEC Tournament to the No. 8 seed — guaranteed a single bye to open the event in Nashville on Thursday. A win over Missouri would guarantee the Wildcats anywhere from a No. 5 to a No. 7 while a loss would lock in the No. 8 seed. With a victory, the following scenarios are on the table:
CALEB GRILL IS MIZZOU’S SNIPER
Now in his sixth season of college basketball and third different school, Caleb Grill is leading Missouri in scoring as the team’s sniper off the bench. Averaging 25.5 minutes per game, the 6-3 super, super senior is scoring 14.4 points per game on 50.0 percent shooting, 42.6 percent from three (on 6.8 attempts) and 85.7 percent at the line while adding 3.8 rebounds and 1.7 steals. He’s got 18 games in double figures and 13 with at least three made 3-pointers.
KENTUCKY HAS NOT PLAYED WELL IN COLUMBIA
The Wildcats are 15-3 all-time against the Tigers, including six straight wins against the new SEC foe after they joined the conference from 2013-17. Since 2018, though, Mizzou is an impressive 3-1 against Kentucky at home — including a blowout 90-77 win most recently in 2022. UK’s lone win in that stretch came when ranked the highest at No. 4 overall, defeating Missouri 66-58 in February of 2019. Can the Cats put their 3-6 record in true road games this season aside and pull off the upset win? The Tigers will have something to say about it, sitting at 17-1 inside Mizzou Arena this season — Texas A&M the lone team to pull off the victory.
Want to interact with the KSR crew during the game? Consider joining the conversation on KSBoard, where we’ll be sharing live updates while also answering questions and providing real-time analysis (and probably complaining about the officiating).
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Miss the game? KSR’s got you covered with a Rapid Reaction live from Mizzou Arena on the KSR YouTube Channel. We’ll also have wall-to-wall postgame coverage on the website, including highlights, comments from Mark Pope and the players, stats, and takeaways.
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