Who will win Kentucky basketball vs Arkansas in SEC showdown today? Our expert prediction

Posted by author February 1, 2025 Basketball

Kentucky basketball hosts Arkansas and coach John Calipari in a highly anticipated matchup at Rupp Arena.
The game marks Calipari’s first return to Rupp Arena since leaving Kentucky to coach the Razorbacks.
Kentucky is looking to build on its recent win over Tennessee, while Arkansas hopes to turn around its disappointing season.

LEXINGTON — Putting aside all the emotions that come with John Calipari‘s return to Rupp Arena for the first time since becoming Arkansas‘ coach last year, there is a more important factor in play: the game itself.

Kentucky basketball and coach Mark Pope aim to build off yet another win against a top-10 foe, downing Tennessee on the road earlier this week to improve to 15-5 (4-3 SEC). Arkansas, on the other hand, hopes to use tonight as a jumping-off point for what’s been a dismal debut season for Calipari; the Razorbacks are 12-8 overall, dropping six of their seven conference games so far. Included in that tally: Arkansas is 0-3 in league road contests. UK is 11-1 at home in Year 1 of the Pope era.

The Razorbacks have a trio of former Wildcats on the roster: guard D.J. Wagner and forwards Zvonimir Ivišić and Adou Thiero. Now a junior, the 6-foot-8, 220-pound Thiero leads the team in numerous statistical categories, including points (16.1), rebounds (6.2) and steals (1.8) per game. But Arkansas lost a major contributor in former Kentucky signee Boogie Fland. The freshman guard was averaging 15.1 points per outing — his assist-to-turnover ratio (3.68) ranks fifth nationally and is tops among SEC players — before suffering a hand injury that ended his season prematurely.

Defensively, Arkansas swats shots with the best of ’em: Its 5.8 blocks per game is second in the conference, trailing only Auburn’s Division I-leading figure (7 per outing).

Here’s what to know about Kentucky’s SEC matchup against Arkansas tonight in Lexington:

The contest between the Wildcats and Razorbacks will air on ESPN. You can stream ESPN on Fubo, which offers a free trial.

Authenticated subscribers also can access ESPN via TV-connected devices or by going to WatchESPN.com, the WatchESPN app or ESPN+.

UK and Arkansas are slated to tip off at 9 p.m. today.

Oct. 23: exhibition vs. Kentucky Wesleyan ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 123, Kentucky Wesleyan 52
Oct. 29: exhibition vs. Minnesota State Mankato ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 98, Minnesota State Mankato 67
Nov. 4: vs. Wright State (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 103, Wright State 62
Nov. 9: vs. Bucknell (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 100, Bucknell 72
Nov. 12: vs. Duke (Champions Classic; State Farm Arena, Atlanta) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 77, Duke 72
Nov. 19: vs. Lipscomb, (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 97, Lipscomb 68
Nov. 22: vs. Jackson State (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 108, Jackson State 59
Nov. 26: vs. Western Kentucky (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 87, Western Kentucky 68
Nov. 29: vs. Georgia State (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 105, Georgia State 76
Dec. 3: at Clemson (ACC/SEC Challenge) ∣ SCORE: Clemson 70, Kentucky 66
Dec. 7: vs. Gonzaga (Climate Pledge Arena; Seattle) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 90, Gonzaga 89 (OT)
Dec. 11: vs. Colgate (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 78, Colgate 67
Dec. 14: vs. Louisville (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 93, Louisville 85
Dec. 21: vs. Ohio State (CBS Sports Classic; Madison Square Garden, New York) | SCORE: Ohio State 85, Kentucky 65
Dec. 31: vs. Brown (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Kentucky 88, Brown 54
Jan. 4: vs. Florida (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Kentucky 106, Florida 100
Jan. 7: at Georgia | SCORE: Georgia 82, Kentucky 69
Jan. 11: at Mississippi State | SCORE: Kentucky 95, Mississippi State 90
Jan. 14: vs. Texas A&M (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Kentucky 81, Texas A&M 69
Jan. 18: vs. Alabama (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Alabama 102, Kentucky 97
Jan. 25: at Vanderbilt | SCORE: Vanderbilt 74, Kentucky 69
Jan. 28: at Tennessee | SCORE: Kentucky 78, Tennessee 73
Feb. 1: vs. Arkansas (Rupp Arena), 9 p.m., ESPN
Feb. 4: at Ole Miss, 7 p.m., ESPN
Feb. 8: vs. South Carolina (Rupp Arena), noon, ESPN/ESPN2
Feb. 11: vs. Tennessee (Rupp Arena), 7 p.m., ESPN
Feb. 15: at Texas, 8 p.m., ESPN
Feb. 19: vs. Vanderbilt (Rupp Arena), 7 p.m., SEC Network
Feb. 22: at Alabama, 6 p.m., ESPN
Feb. 26: at Oklahoma, 9 p.m., SEC Network
March 1: vs. Auburn (Rupp Arena), 1/4 p.m., ABC/ESPN
March 4: vs. LSU (Rupp Arena), 7/9 p.m., ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU
March 8: at Missouri, noon, ESPN/SEC Network

Record: 15-5 (4-3 SEC)

Kentucky 81, Arkansas 68: The Wildcats are the better team. That’s not really up for debate. Aside from a handful of defensive categories, there’s no area in which Arkansas is appreciably better than UK. Under normal circumstances, this is a game the Wildcats should win by double digits. These, of course, are most certainly not normal circumstances. Calipari is back in Lexington as a visiting coach after his (mostly) successful 15-year tenure. Ivišić, Thiero and Wagner won’t lack for motivation, either. Emotions will be there for UK’s players, too. Not because of any feelings for Calipari. None ever played for him; only freshman Travis Perry was even recruited by the ex-coach. But the Wildcats are well aware what this game means for the fan base. And how much UK fans yearn for a victory over Calipari. Him conquering their new hero, Pope, would be devastating. The health of Kentucky’s roster is still a concern, what with Kerr Kriisa still out and fellow point guard Lamont Butler’s status murky, at best. The Razorbacks will circle the wagons, just as the Wildcats did with a MASH unit of a team at Tennessee. Calipari’s team won’t be run out of the building. But Fland’s loss can’t be downplayed. The team’s best creator offensively, that’s an absence Arkansas can’t remedy out of thin air. The Razorbacks will keep it close for the first 30 minutes before the Wildcats’ superior weaponry offensively wears down the opposition to seal the win. And ensure UK fans breathe a sigh of relief Sunday morning.

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.